Aukus Could Rock China's Boat In The Indo-Pacific

Context: Although there is nothing surprising about AUKUS, a Pacific-centric orientation of AUKUS has advantages in the context of China.

Relevance of AUKUS for US in the Indo - Pacific region 

• Opportunity to further defence ties: As AUKUS focuses on ‘furthering’ joint capabilities and interoperability.
• Geopolitical significance: In 2017 and 2019, the Talisman Sabre exercises (a biennial exercise between Australia and U.S.), conducted by the Royal Australian Navy, were tagged by a Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN).
• AUKUS albeit provides an opportunity to the U.S. to place proxy submarine forces to limit China’s forays, especially in the Pacific Ocean.
• Beyond militarization: Expanding to cyber capabilities, artificial intelligence and quantum technologies, apart from undersea capabilities.
• Opportunities to engage regional countries: New Zealand is open to cooperation with AUKUS in areas, especially cyber, its nuclear-averse record notwithstanding.
• Checking China’s regional expansionism: Programmes such as Build Back Better World, Blue Dot Network and Clean Network, to meet the challenge of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
• Deepening diplomatic, security and defence cooperation in the Indo-Pacific to meet the challenges of the 21st century, particularly the rise of China and its rapid militarisation and aggressive behaviour.
• Securing Australia’s seaborne trade: Despite the fact that, any sudden accretion in Australia’s naval capabilities is bound to cause unease in the region.
• Regional consolidation: Shifting AUKUS’s fulcrum to the Pacific Ocean could reassure ASEAN nations.
• Potentially strengthen Japan’s and that of Taiwan’s security in face of China’s mounting bellicosity.

Challenges before AUKUS

• Disunity among members in the region, especially ASEAN Nations: Unable to agree on issues such as developments in Myanmar or the strategic threats posed by China and over the emergence of AUKUS.

• China’s growing strength: China’s potent military capacities must be taken seriously.
• Large and growing undersea fleet, including attack submarines, both nuclear-powered and diesel-electric. 
• China’s naval expansion and far-ranging forays in oceanic space especially in the Indo-Pacific.
• Eg. China uses the Dongdiao-class Type 815 auxiliary general intelligence (AGI) vessel to monitor the multilateral Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) exercise since 2018.

Way Forward: Strengthening of Quad initiative – Albeit the rise of a Pacific-centric orientation for AUKUS, Quad initiative shall be strengthened to realize wider objectives.