India Struggling To Stay Relevant In Afghanistan

Context: India finds itself forlornly outside Kabul tent due to rise of Taliban and associated geo-political shifts.

Background

• Withdrawal of US: India and China have collaborated on a joint project for Afghanistan. 
• Taliban’s rise to power: Spectre of state collapse as banking and health systems are barely functional and the inability to pay electricity bills and 
• Civil society is confused with reverse transformation from a liberal regime to a fundamentalist one.
• India’s humanitarian intervention: India has prepared a consignment of 50,000 metric tonnes of wheat, fortified biscuits and medical assistance for dispatch. 

Geopolitical challenges before India due to recent political changes in Afghan

• Aggressiveness of China: China’s attitude towards India changed dramatically after confrontation in east Ladakh and US withdrawal from Afghanistan further complicated things.
• Negligence of Iran: Iran did not invite India for a conference on Afghanistan and its neighbouring countries in the last week of October.
• India’s prospects of developing the Chabahar Port and the International North South Transit Corridor would be negatively affected.
• India now seen firmly in the American camp: Post India's joining of the West Asia Quad.
• India finds itself forlornly outside the Kabul tent and there are speculations of distancing from Iran and Russia.
• Combined challenge from China and Pakistan, aided by Taliban: It is on India’s radar, especially regarding J&K.
• Growing China – Taliban relationship: As China’s political cover at UN is indispensable for Taliban.
• Limitations of UNSC Resolution 2593 at proposed NSA meet: It emphasises no spillover of radicalisation and terror from Afghanistan, but it will do little to salvage India’s credentials as a pivotal player in Afghanistan.

Positives takeaways for India from recent shifts in Asian geopolitics

• Birth of Quad and AUKUS: Jockeying for space in west and east Asia after US withdrawal from Afghanistan has gained momentum.
• EU’s revised Indo-Pacific strategy: The Queen Elizabeth carrier task force in Indo-Pacific waters make a formidable network of mechanisms for containment of China.
• China – Taliban conflict: Security of CPEC is vital and preventing a spillover of security risks is essential for China as it wants Taliban to make a clean break with terrorism and sever affiliation with terror group.
• Russia against radicalization: Russia told Afghanistan’s neighbours not to host US and NATO bases in the region due to worries of Islamic radicalisation spill over in to Central Asian Republics.