El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO): According to the US weather monitor (NOAA), India’s southwest monsoon this year is likely to benefit from the neutral phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) along the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

• About El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO): It is a recurring ocean-atmospheric condition in the southern equatorial Pacific, caused by changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs).

o It includes alternating warming (El Niño) and cooling (La Niña) phases, collectively called the ENSO cycle.

o ENSO significantly influences rainfall distribution in the tropics and impacts weather across the Indian subcontinent and other global regions.

o ENSO has three phases: warm (El Nino), neutral, and cool (La Nina).

• Impact of ENSO on Indian Monsoon and Agriculture

o Monsoon Impact: El Niño events are associated with weakened monsoons and are linked to most major droughts in India.

ü La Niña leads to above-average monsoon rainfall across the Indian subcontinent.

o Agricultural Impact: El Niño negatively affects summer crop production, reducing yields of rice, sugarcane, cotton, and oilseeds.

ü La Niña rainfall near Kharif harvest time (Sept-Oct) can damage standing crops, despite overall higher rainfall.