Opinion Polls and Ethics

Context:

Issue with authenticity and transparency of Opinion polls for recently conducted Assembly elections.

• An opinion poll is a pre-election survey to gather voters’ views on a range of election-related issues. 
• On the other hand, an exit poll is conducted immediately after people have voted, and assesses the support for political parties and their candidates. 
• Some opinion polls may be sponsored, motivated and biased. Also, almost all polls are non-transparent, providing little information on the methodology. 
• With such infirmities, many “polls” amount to disinformation that can result in “undue influence”, which is an “electoral offence” under IPC Section 171 (C). 
• It is a “corrupt practice” under section 123 (2) of the RP Act. It is unethical to release such data on the eve of an election since it can impact the mind of the voter.

Ethical issues with the Opinion Polls:

• Paid News: It is a very common action; therefore, it is highly possible that some opinion polls may be sponsored, motivated and biased. 
• Undue influence: Opinion polls directly affect the sanctity and integrity of the electoral process. They are able to influence electoral behaviour and distort electoral outcomes. 
• Disinformation: Almost all polls are non-transparent, providing little information on the methodology. With such infirmities, many “polls” amount to disinformation that can result in “undue influence”, which is an “electoral offence” under IPC Section 171 (C). It is a “corrupt practice” under Section 123 (2) of the RP Act. 
• Suspicious affair: A survey getting some elections right is not proof of its credibility or robustness. 
• Bandwagon effect: The bandwagon effect claims that voters “jump on the bandwagon,” which means that if a party is gaining in the polls, the party will gain additional support from the voters, and vice versa if the party is losing in the polls.
• Issues with the smaller parties: It adversely impacts the small and new parties because the voter sees two things – which is the party he likes and whether it is in a position to win.
• Vague and excessive claims: Pollsters make matters worse by making excessive claims, nothing short of black magic. 
• Less focus on methods: A general unwillingness on the part of polling agencies and the media to share even basic methodological details about their polls compounds the problem.
• Based on Negligible data: Due to this, the opinion polls do not reflect the actual figure. Also, they are telecast before the elections only to benefit select political parties.

 Way Forward:

• Code of Conduct: There should be a Code of conduct for the Opinion Polls. Sampling frame, sample size and the exact technique used to draw the sample; the social profile of the achieved sample to be disclosed.
• Transparency: The ownership and track record of the organisation carrying out the survey, details of the sponsor to be made in Public
• Effective alternative method: There is required efforts to explore alternatives to the present procedure of the Opinion polls, alternatives that have been successfully used all over the world.
• Methodology: Raw vote shares reported in the survey and how they were converted into vote estimates and seats forecast

Conclusion: 

• Opinion polls do not just reflect the opinions of people but influence them to create an aura of winnability. Analysing the vulnerability of voters to such influence, there is a crying need to regulate this danger and protect the sanctity of India’s democracy. 
• Once in place, such a mechanism would help the public tell the difference between a genuine and rogue poll and incentivise transparent practices. That would be a significant step forward in democratic public culture.