India In A Double Bind
Context: India has steadily navigated its foreign policy toward a quasi-alliance with America in a highly consequential paradigm shift. In turn, it also spawned a narrative that China has ‘driven’ India into the US camp.
Challenges before India’s foreign policy
- Slide in relations with China since 2017: Since Doklam stand-off in 2017, PLA established a permanent presence close to our Sikkim border, and Bhutan decided to take matters into its own hands and deal directly with Beijing.
- Stand-off in Eastern Ladakh: An aftermath of India’a redrawal of political boundaries in J&K.
- Band wagoning with US: Primarily to ‘settle scores’ with China. Eg. India’s foreign policy trajectory aligning with the US’ Indo-Pacific strategy.
- Rise of Quad and Quad-2 (India-Israel-UAE-US): Quad-2 snubs West Asia’s powerhouses, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran and Egypt, and is viewed as a ‘B’ team of America’s regional subalterns.
- In reality, Washington has created another vector of its anti-China front in the Red Sea and inducted India into it.
- All these complicates India’s ties with Iran.
- Challenges with coming of AUKUS: The ASEAN summits last week witnessed the unease among its members that the new AUKUS alliance erodes their centrality and may fuel arms race.
- AUKUS has also dented the credibility of the trans-Atlantic relationship.
- Rising divide between India and China: China is on track to exceed the US by 2025 in artificial intelligence, microprocessors, computers, electric vehicles, and other critical technologies.
- Technology provides munitions, and the war is fought in two theatres — defence and trade.
- China is building an impressive modern navy to claim dominance in the Pacific.
Conclusion: US binds India closer than ever militarily but totally abandon it economically. Also, US administration is clueless on China and this should make India rethink its foreign policies.
