Context: Centre’s grand claims of Covid immunisation are belied by poor coverage, vaccine unavailability and geographical disparities. It must course correct.
Issues with India’s vaccination strategy
Poor Coverage: Till April 30, about 44% of the eligible population was atleast partially vaccinated, which translates into just 13.5% of the population above 18 years and just 9.2% of the total population.
In contrast, in the United States (50.4%), United Kingdom (43.3), Germany (26.7) and Brazil (13.7).
Mismatch between target and availability: Given the intellectual property rights on vaccines and near-exclusive licenses for Serum Institute of India (SII) and Bharat Biotech (BB), India’s production capacity was only about 25.3 lakh doses per day in April.
Availability for states is likely to be much less than 30% of the total production.
If there is intense competition between states over this small quantity, the already existing inter-state disparity may only exacerbate.
Geographical disparities in coverage: The average doses administered per healthcare worker in India was 2.2. The following data corresponds to Phase 1 of vaccination.
Several states administered at rates above the national average: Jharkhand (17.8), Chhattisgarh (8.2), Gujarat (2.8), Madhya Pradesh (2.5), Bihar (2.8), Odisha (2.7) and Haryana (2.4).
Several other states administered at rates far below the national average: Tamil Nadu (0.5), Andhra Pradesh and Kerala (1.2), and Karnataka and Maharashtra (1.5).
Bleak future prospects:
To vaccinate everyone above 18 twice by January 2022, India would need at least 69 lakh doses per day.
At an average rate of 25 lakh doses per day, India would cover less than 30% of the 18-plus population by January 2022.
Further, at the current rate, it would be 2023 till India can vaccinate everyone above 18 years.
Way forward:
Retreat from the commercialisation of vaccine policy and consider compulsory licensing and mass production of vaccines.
Procure the vaccines directly from manufacturers and provide these free of cost to states.
Develop a transparent and socially desirable formula to be used to distribute vaccines to states.