The Opening in Doha

The Indian Express     21st September 2020     Save    
QEP Pocket Notes

Context:  Understanding the context of the turmoil that has continued in Afghanistan for over four and a half decades is critical in appreciating the enormity of the challenges confronting intra-Afghan talks.

Issues with the Afghan Polity

  • Constant political upheaval:  the overthrow of the monarchy, a nationalist dictatorship, communist rule, the mujahideen era, the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate and the current Islamic Republic. 
  • Presence of foreign forces and outside interference, especially from Pakistan. 
  • Social issues: sharpening ethnic divides, extremist ideologies and theologies, large migration to foreign lands, internal displacement, spread of narcotics and violence.
  • Impact of globalisation: a section of Afghan urban youth linked to the world through the social media wants more open systems within an Islamic framework.

Understanding the context of intra-Afghan talks

  • Taliban is in a position of strength:  as the Afghan Govt had little success in consolidating the republic and keeping the Taliban confined to a small area
  • Role of the United States:
  • Strategic defeat of US: as the American side was not willing to enter Pakistan territory and carry out a sustained operation to effectively tackle the Taliban.
  • Retains Capabilities: the Taliban leadership and Pakistan would be aware that despite its strategic defeat and desperation to withdraw, the US retains the capacity to deny them the fruits of “victory”.
  • Fragmented Afghan polity
  • Issues of power sharing due to flawed presidential elections
  • The polity also includes civil society and other political forces like Hizb-e-Islami which gives opportunity to the Taliban to create disunity.
    • Violence to continue: Taliban would resist a ceasefire and power sharing agreement  since it would want to retain it cadres so that Central government would take them seriously
  • Differences over nature of Islam
  • While the Constitution commits the state to the “Holy religion of Islam” and seeks to uphold the universal declaration of human rights.
  • Taliban accepts the Islamic sharia in its extreme  interpretation affecting its approach to other faiths, other Islamic mazhabs, gender issues, social conduct and apparel and even facial hair.

Going forward: 

  • Creative Islamic Juriprudence: Goodwill among the negotiators and leaders buttressed with creative Islamic jurisprudence and scholarship would be needed. 
  • Relinquish History: Unless all parties including their foreign patrons, especially Pakistan, are willing to substantially relinquish entrenched thinking of history, the talks will fail.
  • Acceptance between communities:
  • The Kabul elite would also have to make concessions on political issues and social codes
  • As Taliban is Pashtun at core, it will have to address fears of non-Pashtun areas given their bitter experience in its past rule.

India’s position in Intra-Afghan talks

  • Refusal to modify Afghan-approach: even as the Taliban had gained ground in the country and was getting international legitimacy
  • Failure to balance diplomatic contradictions: India saw the situation Afghanistan in black and white terms, and linking it with Pakistan, it cornered itself from the issue.
    • For E.g. It could have continued to strengthen its ties with Kabul and at the same time opened links with the Taliban.

Conclusion:  The talks should be Afghan owned and led for long term peace to prevail. India should continue with its traditional policy of fostering close ties with any legitimate Afghan government.

QEP Pocket Notes