Horsemen of Apocalypse

Context: The pandemic has increased the challenges to global order. It is time for India to develop a new framework by being a rule shaper.

Impact of Pandemic

• Reduced carbon emission: Theat of climate change is constrained due to halt in economic activities.

• In April, daily carbon emissions were down by 17% compared to last year.

• The drop-in emissions are projected to be about 8% in 2020 will put us on track of achieving Paris agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5oC

• Increased threat of cyber-attacks: Work from Home, video chat connectivity and online delivery of goods have transformed the economic environment. 

• However, non-commensurate growth in security features is threatening the virtual space and a surge in cybercrime and cyber fraud is anticipated.

• Accentuated geopolitical tensions: No recourse to those involved in the conflict reflects the poor state of global governance mechanisms.
• Deteriorating US-China relationship due to blame game over virus outbreak.
• The brazen behavior of China in matters relating to Hong Kong, Australia, South China Sea, and India.
• Paucity of global trust: 
• European Union (EU), touted as ‘ever closer union’, is moving towards nationalistic response to tackle pandemic rather than a collective one. 
• Nordic region opened borders 
• Nearly 90 governments have blocked the exports of medical supplies—Global Trade Alert study.
• Impact on diversified supply chains: COVID crisis is driving the shift from efficiency to self-sufficiency.
• French President pledged “full independence” in crucial medical supplies.
• PM Modi has called for self-reliance and being vocal for local.
• In US, support for “Buy American” benchmarks for government health spending has growing bipartisan support.
• Fall of multilateral bodies: The UN system has been missing action and is under deep trouble.

Way Forward: From ‘rule takers’ to ‘rule shaper’

• It is time for India to conceptualize a new world order and concretize its role in partnerships to formulate the blueprints of change.