A Pincer in Ladakh

Context: China’s military-operational support to Pakistan's adventurism against India demonstrates China will adopt a policy to suit its interests. 

Paradigm Shift in China’s Strategy towards India

• China’s pursuit of its strategic interests: including border management on land and sea; aggressively through rapid military modernisation since 2005.
• Limited experiments with “Walk in operations”:  across Line of Actual Control (LAC) began after 2008. 
• China’s Indian Ocean strategy: The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) (as a part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is also a part of China’s Indian Ocean Strategy.
• Mutuality of strategic interests: Pakistan began with the reported presence of PLA troops in Gilgit-Baltistan in 2011. 
• Pakistan ramped up its proxy campaign: in J&K in sync China’s assertiveness in Eastern Ladakh and its BRI initiative. 
• China’s increasing diplomatic support to Pakistan: reflected in Chinese attitude towards the issues of stapled visas, NSG, global terrorism, and abrogation of Article 370.
• Military Coordination: Pakistan is a larger part of China’s overall strategy against India.

Possible Threat of China’s Pincer Approach (simultaneously attacking both flanks of an enemy formation)

• China may force further escalation: in the LAC region depending upon the world’s response to its expansionism.

• China’s success or failure in such adventurism will set the course of its future strategy against its multiple adversaries

• China-Pakistan force multiplier cooperation: towards a future “pincer approach” in Ladakh.
• Terror Promotion: Chinese will seek greater Pakistani activity in J&K and Ladakh including attempts to keep the LoC alive along with terror in the hinterland.

Way Forward

• Ensuring capability in diplomatic and military domains.

• Translating tremendous international support: into a high level of strategic support.
• India must exploit China’s psyche: to prevent escalation and win impending standoffs without fighting. 

Conclusion: Firm and full strategy to deal with Pakistan in all contingencies has now become imperative.