Context:New concerns and dilemma for India with respect to Myanmar due to a recent military coup led by General Min Aung Hlaing in Myanmar.
Concerns in Indo-Myanmar relations
Uncertainties in Myanmar’s democracy: Due to the recent military coup. However, even before the coup, Myanmar’s democracy was inadequate and intolerant towards minorities. For E.g. -
Bloody crackdown against the minority Muslim community in 2017.
Misconduct at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
Possibilities of political realignments in Myanmar: Due to strong reactions and the threat of sanctions from the United States and the West in the wake of the recent coup.
China factor: Chinese footprint in Myanmar may increase with the military in power.
Myanmar is more likely to have closer links with China as other major countries are imposing sanctions on them.
China has no ‘baggage’ of democratic norms; it can easily engage with undemocratic Myanmar.
India’s Political dilemma: While the dual power centres of the military and the civilian government were more suited for India, it now struggles to respond to the military coup in Myanmar
Choosing between norms and interests: i.e. the normative concerns of the International community and National Interest.
India’s Myanmar policy is more likely to be a function of interests rather than norms: Due to change in regional geopolitics with the arrival of China.
Cannot support or oppose the military:
As support amounts to a stand against the democratic norms: like the rule of law and other democratic processes.
Cannot outrightly oppose the military as they were cooperative with Indian military in the past to contain the north-eastern insurgencies, coordinated action and intelligence sharing.
India’s internal security concern: Myanmar military’s action may lead to a rise of extremism among Rohingya community which would not be in India’s interests.
Conclusion: India’s response should be nimble-footed and creative by continuing to maintain relations with the government in power in Myanmar with the focus on improving trade, connectivity, and security links.