The Long and the Short of India’s Naypyitaw dilemma

The Hindu     9th February 2021     Save    

Context: New concerns and dilemma for India with respect to Myanmar due to a recent military coup led by General Min Aung Hlaing in Myanmar.

Concerns in Indo-Myanmar relations

  • Uncertainties in Myanmar’s democracy: Due to the recent military coup. However, even before the coup, Myanmar’s democracy was inadequate and intolerant towards minorities. For E.g. - 
    • Bloody crackdown against the minority Muslim community in 2017.
    • Misconduct at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
  • Possibilities of political realignments in Myanmar: Due to strong reactions and the threat of sanctions from the United States and the West in the wake of the recent coup.
  • China factor: Chinese footprint in Myanmar may increase with the military in power.
    • Myanmar is more likely to have closer links with China as other major countries are imposing sanctions on them.
    • China has no ‘baggage’ of democratic norms; it can easily engage with undemocratic Myanmar.
  • India’s Political dilemma: While the dual power centres of the military and the civilian government were more suited for India, it now struggles to respond to the military coup in Myanmar
    • Choosing between norms and interests: i.e. the normative concerns of the International community and National Interest.
      • India’s Myanmar policy is more likely to be a function of interests rather than norms: Due to change in regional geopolitics with the arrival of China.
    • Cannot support or oppose the military:
      • As support amounts to a stand against the democratic norms: like the rule of law and other democratic processes.
      • Cannot outrightly oppose the military as they were cooperative with Indian military in the past to contain the north-eastern insurgencies, coordinated action and intelligence sharing.
  • India’s internal security concern: Myanmar military’s action may lead to a rise of extremism among Rohingya community which would not be in India’s interests.
                      Conclusion: India’s response should be nimble-footed and creative by continuing to maintain relations with the government in power in Myanmar with the focus on improving trade, connectivity, and security links.