Context: The Chinese intrusions in Ladakh, resultant violence and the deadlock in negotiations, indicates the arrival of a worrisome two-front situation for India.
A two-front challenge for India:
From Pakistan’s side:
Deployments: Reports says that Pakistan had moved 20,000 troops into Gilgit-Baltistan, matching the Chinese deployments in Eastern Ladakh.
Ceasefire violations by Pakistan: four-fold increase between 2017 and 2019.
Hybrid conflict by Pakistan: using militants and limited military action in Jammu and Kashmir if hostilities between India and china broke out in Northern border areas.
Joint cooperation between China-Pakistan:
Recent Shaheen IX Pakistan-China joint exercise shows alignment in their strategic thinking.
China accounted for 73% of the total arms imports of Pakistan between 2015-2019.
Challenges for India: India is facing two dilemmas- of resources and strategy.
Resources: India has only about half combat squadrons needed for two-front war; it is neither practical nor feasible to build the level of capability tow engage at both fronts.
Strategy: Decision on allocation of resources will require the military to rethink its strategy for the western border.
While a defensive approach may encourage Pakistan to continue with its actions in J&K with a level of impunity.
Way forward:
Developing a Security Doctrine: with close interaction with the political leadership.
Capacity building: Ensuring the right balance with limited economic resources, based on a detailed assessment of China and Pakistan’s war-fighting strategies.
Focus on future technologies: such as robotics, artificial intelligence, cyber, electronic warfare, etc. along with major platforms such as aircraft, ships, and tanks, etc.
Using Diplomacy to its advantage:
Ensuring a friendly and cooperative relationship with neighbouring countries.
Strengthening current engagement with West Asian nations, including Iran, to ensure energy security, increase maritime cooperation and enhance goodwill in the extended neighbourhood.
Balancing India’s relationship with the USA and Russia as Russia could play a role in defusing the severity of a regional opposition against India.
Pacifying aggrieved citizens of J & K: by political outreach which could help in thwarting attempts of Pakistan to raise militancy in the valley.
Reducing the effect of a collusive Sino-Pakistan containment strategy: Through potential rapprochement with Pakistan provided, it can be persuaded to put an end to terrorist infiltration.