A World in Chaos and Moment of Truth

Context: Acutely sharp divisions between liberals and conservatives and competition between ideologues and hardcore practitioners are endangering democracy.

Current threats to notions of democracy:

• Threats to identity and rising deep divide: in elections across the oldest democracies like the United States (For E.g. attempts to negate the election verdict).
• Degradation of values of French secularism and Social Cohesion: due to the changing socio-political challenges and the recent wave of terrorist attacks in France.
• Resurfacing of terrorism: The rise in radical Islam, Islamophobia and terrorist organizations like al-Qaida and IS. (IS attacks in France and Austria (Vienna)).
  • Newer IS recruits combine the symbolism with spectacular violence with the intent to produce a reaction across the entire Muslim world, generating a religious-cultural conflict.
• Rise in informational autocracy: which means relying on the dictatorships and authoritarian tactics of manipulating information in order to perpetuate power and achieve certain desired ends.
• For E.g. Manipulation of grievances by using psychometric techniques (for e.g. Cambridge Analytica and the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) based ‘deep fakes’).

Challenges before India:

• Rising polarisation: In some regions, especially where mid­term elections are scheduled, as in West Bengal.
• Internal Security Issues: due to the public confrontation of Citizenship (Amendment) Act, National Register of Citizens and repeal of article 370.
• Uncertain external environment:
  • Declining relations with China; weak bargaining power and rise in isolation of India (India’s exit from Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP))
  • Provocation from Pakistan: the holding of assembly elections in Gilgit­Baltistan and its effort to push in terrorists leading to massive casualties.
  • Marginalized role in Afghanistan: where the control of the Taliban is increasing.

Conclusion: While new foreign policy initiatives may be few, major reform initiatives will be con?ned to the economy, the energy sector and new innovation systems.