A COVID Blot On India’s Foreign Policy Canvas

Context: Analysing consequences of COVID 2.0 on India’s foreign policy canvas.

Consequences on COVID 2.0 on India’s foreign policy

• Demise of regional primacy: India’s regional aspirations of transforming from a balancing power to a leading power taken a halt as the pandemic prompted India to accept foreign aid after a gap of 17 years.
  • As a result, South Asian states are likely to board the Chinese bandwagon.
  • Uncertainties regarding Quad: Post pandemic, there are doubts on India’s ability and desire to contribute to Indo-Pacific and the Quad.
  • It will limit ambitious military spending or modernisation plans and the country’s attention on global diplomacy and regional geopolitics, be it Afghanistan or Sri Lanka or the Indo­-Paci?c.
• Domestic politics and shifting priorities: General economic distress, a fall in foreign direct investment and industrial production, and a rise in unemployment have already lowered mood.
  • Upcoming elections and political compulsions further limit scope for any foreign policy innovations.
• A shift in India-China equations: India might be forced to be more conciliatory towards China because of the following -
  • A stronger China: China has, compared to most other countries, emerged stronger in the wake of the pandemic. World, notwithstanding anti-China rhetoric, will continue to do business with China.
  • Unsure of the nature of China-U.S. relations: Rise of China and India’s COVID-19-related troubles could prompt Washington to hedge its bets on Beijing.
  • Fading Indian claims: That India could compete with China as a global investment and manufacturing destination would remain as claims.
• Depressed foreign policy: There is a scope for more accommodation, reconciliation and cooperation in neighbourhood with Pakistan and other SAARC members.
  • A forced moderation in approach: As the United States seemed hesitant, at least initially, to assist India, whereas Russia, China and even Pakistan reached the forefront, offering helps.
• Pressure on strategic autonomy: Counter pressures as a post-COVID-19 New Delhi might find it harder to resist demands of a closer military relationship with the U.S.

Conclusion: Every crisis opens up the possibility for change and new thinking.

• Opening up new regional opportunities for cooperation, especially under the ambit of SAARC, an initiative that already saw some small beginnings during the first wave.
• Focus on ‘regional health multilateralism’: To promote mutual assistance and joint action on health emergencies such as this.