Reading China right

Context: The motive behind the recent Chinese incursions may find its clues in its border tactics in Central Asia and in growing domestic uncertainties.

China’s Past Border Tactics: Outward projection of its internal security concerns.

• In Central Asia: 

• Fear of Sensitive Xinjiang: China displayed urgency in settling border disputes with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan after the collapse of Soviet Union.

• Use of ‘incentives with coercion’: China, although settled for less territory than what was claimed before, it forced smaller countries to settle for additional gains:

• Kazakhstan had to denounce Uyghur separatism and curb anti-China activities.
• Tajikistan was made to surrender 1,100 sq. miles in 2010 and yet were made to feel victor.
• Kyrgyzstan had to cede 1,20,000 hectares for dubious assistance.

• Multilateral cooperation meant to blunt US-led Alliance:

• China has pushed its economic agenda by making Xinjiang a pivotal link to the Eurasian markets.
• Self-serving Shanghai Cooperation Organization was created.

• Borders and Rivers are altered to meet China’s interests:

• Weaker states in Russia’s Far East are induced to let out agriculture and forest land to Chinese farmers.
• These are fueling tensions and resentments across Asia.
• Along India’s Border: 
• No framework developed: After 22 rounds of special representative level talks, which were first instituted in 2005, no dispute settlement has been achieved.

• China’s push for formal settlement:

• Depsang standoff in 2013 shows China’s urgency in pushing for India to “redouble” efforts in dispute settlement.
• Delinking Aksai Chin claims: China would try to separate India’s Ladakh claims from China’s “minimal demand” of non-negotiable Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh.
• China’s motives:
• Settle the boundary disputes on its terms.
• Demand of Non-Interference: China is concerned about India ramping up infrastructure close to the sensitive regions of Tibet and Xinjiang.
• Discouraging Quad coalition: China being fearful has retained its options to offset the Quad by fronting Iran, North Korea and Pakistan.

Way forward: 

• Decipher the tactic: India has to tread carefully unless both sides are ready for grand bargain.
• If India falls for Chinese aggression and cedes territory in Ladakh, China would then focus towards Arunachal, a similar tactic of acquiring territory in Central Asia.
• India’s claim over PoK and Gilgit Baltistan will also get weakened.