Global N-order in a Flux

Context: The global nuclear order which was in place since the 1960s is facing challenges due to new developments and the changes in the world order.

The global nuclear order since the 1960s:

• Partial Test Ban Treaty (PTBT) of 1963: prohibiting the testing of nuclear weapons overground. 
• Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) of 1970:  It imposed no credible commitment on the nuclear-weapon states to engage in nuclear disarmament within a specific time frame.

• But non-nuclear-weapon states committed themselves not to produce or acquire such weapons. 

• Other arms control agreements reached between superpowers: 

• Limited anti-ballistic missile (ABM) defence: The ABM treaty advocates the doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), protective defence being allowed only for the capital city. 
• Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) agreement of 1988, eliminated medium and short-range nuclear delivery systems. 
• The Strategic Arms Reduction Talks: Resulted in significant reductions in the nuclear arsenals of both the US and the Soviet Union. 
• New START agreement of 2011, the arsenals were to be reduced in a 10-year time frame to 1,550 each. 
• Open Skies Treaty in 1992: This is to ensure transparency and compliance with arms limitations and confidence-building measures. 

Concerns related past treaties:

• Non-inclusive and lack of credibility: While India signed the PTBT, it rejected the NPT because

• NPT had no credible commitment on the part of the nuclear-weapon states to engage in nuclear disarmament within a specific time frame
• While non-nuclear-weapon states committed themselves not to produce or acquire such weapons. 
• The 2015 NPT review conference disagreed on an outcome document.

• The ABM treaty and the INF agreement have been repudiated by both the US and Russia.

• The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty was concluded in 1995 but is not yet in force though a moratorium on nuclear testing is in place. 

• India refused to join the consensus, and the US failed to ratify it. 

• There are indications that the US will not extend the New START treaty beyond 2021.

Unravelling of the New developments: Following the are the rising challenges to global nuclear order - 

• The Cold War binary no longer prevails:  China is emerging as a significant nuclear power, with sophisticated weapons and delivery systems.

• There are nine countries with significant nuclear arsenals, and the dynamic among them is complex and unpredictable. 
• Inadequate nuclear doctrines based on the Cold War era. 
• China resists joining any trilateral negotiations while the prospects for a multilateral nuclear disarmament agreement remain bleak.

• Advances in technology: The nuclear domain is getting integrated with cyber and space environments. 

• For E.g.  The development of hypersonic glide weapons directing towards the need for an arms control beyond the nuclear paradigm.

• Geopolitical situation: It is sliding towards great power confrontation and rising regional tensions, which is exacerbating an already frayed nuclear order.

Way Forward:

• Careful assessment: India needs to carefully assess the impact of recent developments on national security and the efficacy of nuclear deterrence. 
• Need for doctrinal agility and integrative approaches across domains to stay ahead of the curve.