Will China Hold Up its Side of the Truce Bargain?

Context: After a prolonged phase of playing cat and mouse, India and China last Friday declared a truce and the promise to end the brinkmanship.

Reasons leading to failure of the talks: Chinese history of being deceitful, double-speak and relentless pursuit of Middle Kingdom status (or the centre of civilization)

Setback for China: 

• China is gradually losing the perception battle.

• India's chutzpah against an economic and military giant.

• Equally good opponent: India is equally committed to holding its own in protecting its borders.

• External support to India: The fact that the US and Europe are in India's corner must be worrying to China.

• Weather may become worse in coming days:  temperatures drop to -40 degrees is a daunting task for any army.

• High Opportunity cost: China has all but lost a potentially lucrative market for its goods
• Impact of COVID: World is pointing fingers on china due to its failure to alert and contain the spread of the deadly COVID-19

Concerns for India

• Economy vs Border: Battling the worst contraction in its economy due to COVID-19 induced lockdowns, has had to divert precious mind space and resources toward bolstering its troops along the border

• Risk of a two-front battle: Involving Pakistan on the western border—if the situation does worsen.

Conclusion: Two Asian majors have formally declared each other as rivals. India needs to assume that it will be at the receiving end of Chinese aggression—overtly and covertly.