Why India Needs a Plan for Climate Talks

Context: India must announce a national target date for reaching net-zero emissions (necessary not only to reduce carbon emissions but also to control air pollution) in the CoP 26, which is to be held in November 2021.

Positive developments since Paris Agreement

• Increased public awareness about the dangers of climate change has increased all over the world.
• The growth of solar energy has been impressive.
• Electric vehicles have made more progress than once thought likely.

Issues with the global climate change governance:

• Looming view of goals: The goal of limiting global warming above pre-industrial levels to "well below two °C, and ideally to 1.5°C" is nowhere in sight.
  • Instead, the world looks set for a warming of at least 3.2°C, which will be disastrous; India would be among the worst sufferers.
  • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has reported that global emissions must drop to zero by 2050 if global warming is to be limited to 1.5° C above the pre-industrial level.
• Distorted climate justice: The announcement of net-zero emission by the developed countries has put pressure on developing countries like India.
  • This is because developed countries are already nearing their peak emission, while the developing countries don't have access to the required technology and burdened with development objectives.
  • For e.g., while the standard for net-zero target has been set at 2050 by the developed countries, for India, the 2°C targets would allow India's emissions to rise and peak in 2026.
• Inadequacy of carbon budget: The IPCC states that the carbon that can be released from 2020 onwards cannot exceed 985 Gigatonnes (Gt) if global warming is to be limited to 2^o
  • However, At the current rates of emission, this global budget would be exhausted by 2043.
  • Lack of international agreement, thus, presents a problem in deciding fair carbon budgets.
• Financing issues: While the Paris agreement envisaged climate-related finance for developing countries being ramped up to $100 billion per year by 2020, the OECD estimates suggest that the actual flow was only $79 billion in 2018.
  • The additional investments in the energy sector needed in developing countries are estimated to exceed $400 billion per year between 2016 and 2050, even to meet the two °C target.
  • In addition, these countries have to bear adaptation costs that the UN est mates at about $70 billion per year, rising to $390 billion by 2050.

Way Forward:

• Reducing emissions: through –
  • Rational energy pricing to encourage energy-efficient choices;
  • Carbon pricing to incentivize a shift from fossil fuels to green energy;
  • Upgrading the efficiency and cleanliness of coal-based thermal plants, combined with a phasing down of these plants;
  • Setting higher energy-efficiency standards for buildings;
  • Sensible urban planning to reduce the dependence on personalized motor transport;
  • Increasing forest cover.
• Role of COP-26: While it can only encourage governments to act, there are two areas where it can give strong signals –
  • One is to call for stronger national targets for reducing emissions while leaving it to the governments to do what needs to be done.
  • The other is to agree on mechanisms for financing the massive investments that are needed in developing countries in order to reduce emissions.
• Ensure climate justice: Climate justice requires that the advanced countries get there (net-zero) before 2050, allowing the developing countries to get there later (than 2050). Approach should include -
  • Process to determine the global carbon budget in terms of the additional carbon that can be added to the atmosphere given the global warming target.
  • Agree upon a fair way of allocating the global budget across countries.
  • Define an emissions trajectory for each country that is consistent with its share of the budget.
• On Financing: Global community could help in containing global warming by putting in place mechanisms for financial support to developing countries that want to build the infrastructure that is needed for a low emissions pathway.
  • Increased investments in infrastructure in developing countries would also impart a much-needed expansionary stimulus to the global economy.