Warming of Climate Diplomacy

Context: Global climate diplomacy must focus on accelerated 2030 goals rather than net-zero target dates.

Present Global climate diplomacy:

• Observing targets of net-zero emissions: Countries like the United States (US) and China who accounts for around 40% of emissions, has announced to observe net-zero emissions by 2050 and 2060, respectively.
• Enhanced emission reduction by 2030 was announced by Europe (EU) + the UK (55 % cut), US (50 % cut) and Japan (46 % cut).

Shortcomings of the present Global climate diplomacy:

• Skewed power structure: Global climate diplomacy operates on a 40:40:20 power structure.
  • The first 40 includes the two big emitters, China and the US, the G-2, who account for around 40% of global emission.
  • The second 40 consists of about 18 countries, including India, each one of which accounts for 1% or more of the global carbon emissions.
  • The balance 20 consists of about 180 countries that are at the receiving end.
• Inadequacy of the targets: Net-zero emission targets aim to keep the temperature rise below 1.5⁰C, but a net-zero target for 2050 will not achieve this aim if we do not accelerate emissions reductions and raise the targets for 2030 beyond what was promised at Paris agreement.
  • Even if countries like the US, EU+UK and Japan achieve their promised targets, by the time they reach net-zero emissions in 2050, they will have used up 976 Giga (billion) Tonnes of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (GtCO2e) of available carbon space.
  • Similarly, China will use up 530 GtCO2e of available carbon space by its net-zero date of 2060.
• Reduced carbon space for developing nations: While India’s carbon emissions are just a little more than one-quarter of China’s, yet there will be pressure on India to announce net-zero emissions.
  • Assuming that its carbon emissions peak at 4.5 GtCO2e in 2040 and reach net-zero level by 2070, it will have occupied only 194 GtCO2e of carbon space.
  • Consumption-based analysis has shown that the consumption of the richest 10 % of the world’s people accounts for 48 % of the emissions.

Way forward: Change the course of Global climate diplomacy:

• Industrial nations should ramp up their targets: They should be aiming at net-zero emissions well before 2050 and leave room for the latecomers to the path of economic prosperity like India.
• Expand ambit of the principle of common but differentiated responsibility by connecting some basic principles of social justice between rich and poor individuals.
• Focus more on accelerated 2030 goals rather than net-zero target dates.
• Time framed phasing out of coal use for power generation: Give a date for peaking of coal consumption soon after 2030 and a progressive decline after that by-
  • Using the potential of renewables, that will account for 40% of power generation capacity by 2030.
  • Reducing coal consumption in steel and cement.