Two Theatres Of Peacemaking

Context: Peace and reconciliation process in Afghanistan and the Middle East will have wider implications for India’s strategic diplomacy in Middle East.

Developments in Afghanistan and the Middle East

• Normalisation of ties between Israel and the Gulf kingdoms, may not necessarily lead to broader peace in the Middle East. 
• Leaders of UAE are about to sign a formal peace agreement with Israel at the White House. 
• US initiatives in Afghanistan and Arabia are driven by the US’s quest for diplomatic victories.
• US has been eager, to redeem his pledge of putting an end to America’s “endless wars” in the greater Middle East.
• Early ceasefire talk and political reconciliation between Afghanistan and the Taliban are a part of the agreement between the US and the Taliban.
• US has pledged to withdraw all its troops from Afghanistan and the Taliban has promised not to attack the US and its allies.
• The Afghan peace process recognises the fact that the Taliban could not be defeated on the battlefield and must be accepted as a legitimate political force. 

Peace efforts in Afghanistan and the Middle East: Implications and Trend

• Strategic reconciling of competing interests in Afghanistan and the Middle East will alter the geopolitical landscape in both places. 
• Whether peace breaks out in Afghanistan or not, the Taliban is here to stay.
• Arabs and Israelis contradictions will no longer be the dominant ones in the region.
• As UAE and Bahrain join Egypt and Jordan in having formal relationships with Israel.

• India will need to pay more attention to the unfolding realignments in the Middle East especially between the Arabs and non-Arab states.

• The current peace deal is about reconciliation between a critical section of the Arabs with Israel and their growing confrontation with Turkey and Iran.
• As the US steps back from the region, at least for now, the resulting strategic vacuum is likely to be filled by other powers. 
• China’s future role in Afghanistan, in partnership with Pakistan, could be quite significant and will be of some concern for India.
• Apart from global powers, regional powers are also playing critical role in the new geopolitics of the Middle East.
•  Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey are locked in a major contest for regional influence. 
• Egypt and Iraq are trying to regain their once privileged places in the regional hierarchy
• Domestic turbulence and the clamour for more representative governments are sharpening conflicts within and between countries.
•  Economic fallout (fall in oil price) is making it harder for political elites to address the emerging political challenges.

Conclusion: India’s framework of non-involvement, however, is unlikely to survive the present wave of structural change in Afghanistan and Arabia.