Trilateral Humility

Context: If all three powers, China, Pakistan and India, can draw the appropriate lessons in humility, there is hope for regional politics to turn over a new leaf.

Background: Recent ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan along the Line of Control (LOC) and de-escalation on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China are a welcome step.

Key elements of strengthened India’s foreign policy in dealing with Pakistan and China:

• International standing: India now has enough weight in the international system that any attempts to internationalise Kashmir (by Pakistan) are a non-starter.
  • E.g. the revocation of Article 370 did not unleash the kinds of fissures and cycle of violence within the Valley that Pakistan might have been hoping to exploit.
• Change in the status quo:
  • India has stood up with enough firmness to send the signal that it will not be a pushover (in the LAC) (signalling that Chinese military and economic hegemony can be resisted.
  • Retaliated Pakistan through a strike at Balakot.

Challenges to de-escalation between the three nations:

• Unintended effects on international standing: Belligerent use of foreign policy in domestic politics has unintended consequences on India’s international standing.
  • E.g. domestic politics related to the Citizenship Amendment Act has placated Bangladesh, which is vital to our strategic interests.
• Linking China and Pakistan issues: has diverted the need for significant resources to deal with China, and has cut out all of India’s loose talk on cross-border adventurism.
  • Status quo ante has not been restored on the LAC with China, and costs can be imposed on India.
• Existence of Pakistani deep state: there is always the risk that some fringe group will try to test the waters by precipitating an incident
• Opaqueness of Chinese intentions will create difficulty in sustaining the momentum.
• Nationalism: as a perennial derailing ideological force in all three countries

Way Forward:

• Acknowledging the diminishing returns of belligerence: Flippant militarism (of India) and infrastructure of terrorism (Pakistan) should be checked to gains international standing.
• Utilising Nationalism: Although it stands challenged in the three nations currently, Nationalism is often adaptable – It requires some creatively organised hypocrisy.

Conclusion: The world will not run according to a Modi doctrine, a Bajwa doctrine or a Xi doctrine. The region will be better off with humility that tries to align them, rather than a hubris that exults in unilateral triumphalism.