The Tremors From Kabul

Context: Taking over a country by force is one thing; governing it effectively is quite another matter. The Taliban will face challenges. Change in Afghanistan has security implications for India and the region.

Geopolitical significance of the rise of Taliban in Afghanistan

• Failed withdrawal of the US: The US has expended much treasure and shed much blood over the last two decades. The original trigger for the US military intervention in Afghanistan was the 9/11 attacks.
  • Changed priorities: 
    • After the elimination of primary targets like al-Qaeda and finally Osama Bin-laden in 2011, the US thereafter sucked into a vortex in which its mission oscillated between counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency.
    • Recently, the US now regards China as its principal strategic competitor. The latter’s muscle-flexing in the East and South China Seas calls for a renewed effort by the US to protect its stakes.
  • Presence of vested interest delayed the withdrawal: The military presence in Afghanistan has been questioned by the US political firmament. Meanwhile, the development and reconstruction programmes had led to vested interests in the form of private security contractors, service providers and NGOs.
• Positive development for China and Pakistan:
  • China had shrewdly invited Taliban leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar early on in an at- tempt to secure assurances that prevent Afghan territory from being used to host Uighur separatists.
  • At the geopolitical level, the BRI may well receive a boost, given China’s interests in connectivity that could straddle the region, from Pakistan to Iran.
  • In 1996, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Pakistan were quick to recognise the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan established by Taliban 1.0. This time around, too, Pakistan has shown alacrity in welcoming the change.
• Humanitarian tragedy: Through the recent campaign, the Taliban revealed a proclivity for violence. They will now have to demonstrate a capacity for governance.
  • UN Security Council’s calls for “an immediate cessation of all hostilities and the establishment, through inclusive negotiations of a new Government that is united, inclusive and representative” and also underscores the need for the continued participation of women in governance.
  • Currently, about 2,500 Afghan students are enrolled in educational and vocational institutions across India.
• Security implications for India: A spill-over of any chaos and instability in Afghanistan beyond its borders could give terrorism a shot in the arm. 
  • It could also singe Pakistan if it does not review its malevolent practices, which favour terror as an instrument of state policy.

Conclusion: As a close neighbour, India has keen stakes in ensuring a stable, secure and developed Afghanistan. As the rotational President of the UN Security Council for August, India has an opportunity to engage important stakeholders on the way forward.