The Script Of The New Endgame In Afghanistan

Context: The rapid fall of the Afghan government (within six weeks since US forces vacated) is a moment of tragedy for Asia as well. Afghanistan today is in a condition that is far worse than in 1990s.

Underlying factors behind the tragic situation in Afghanistan

• US’s withdrawal:
  • Decision of Mr Biden not to alter the last date for the exit of US troops in Afghanistan, which sent a clear signal to Taliban of a collapse of US resolve to safeguard the interests of Afghanistan.
  • US even acknowledged the Taliban’s supremacy in return for the safe passage of their troops.
• Evolution and strengthening of Taliban:
  • Taliban’s duplicity: In projecting, at one level, the image of a mature group during Doha talks while at another, perpetuating violence of most ferocious kind, is clearly evident as events unfold. The worst is, perhaps, yet to come.
  • Gaining on the weightage of a recognised entity in Afghanistan, Taliban is intent on keeping absolute control and is counting on China, Russia, and Pakistan to do so. 
• Breakdown of Afghan establishments: The Afghan Establishment seemed to give up the fight against Taliban earlier on by ceding authority to private militias, former Afghan warlords and a rabble of disparate armed groups.

Consequences and threats

• Rising factionalism and terrorism:
  • As the Afghan state implodes, a wider cleaving between Pashtuns, Uzbeks, Tajiks, Hazaras and the myriad other clans that populate Afghanistan is evident. 
  • Old threats may resurface: The situation is far more likely to encourage erstwhile terror groups, such as the one led by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar.
    • There has been a resurgence in al Qaeda activities recently. 
    • The Islamic State (IS), after some earlier setbacks, is again regrouping and currently poses a real threat to areas abutting, and including Afghanistan. 
    • Radicalised Islamist terror and the forces of ‘doctrinaire theocracy’ have, thus, become stronger.
• Vulnerable stakes for India, Iran: 
  • India, even more than Shia-dominated Iran, may be the outlier for a variety of reasons, including its warm relations with the Karzai and the Ghani regimes in the past two decades.
  • Difficult neighbourhood relations:
    • Pakistan may be an enigma of sorts, but the Taliban will need Pakistan at least in the short and medium-term.
    • Relations between Taliban, Afghanistan and Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan may not be easy.

Conclusion

• If the 21st century was expected to become the century of progress, the situation in Afghanistan represents a severe setback to all such hopes and expectations.
• For India, the virtual retreat of the US from this part of Asia, the growing China-Russia-Pakistan nexus across the region and Iran under a hardliner like Ebrahim Raisi all work to its disadvantage. 
• A great deal of hard thinking is needed as to how to retrieve a situation that, for the present, seems heavily tilted against India.