The return of a bogey

Context: ‘Population control’ in Assam and UP points to political bad faith, revives discredited ideas.

Evolution of population control policies in India

• After Independence: India was the first country in the world to have a National Family Planning programme in 1952. We have had a National Population Policy for over half a century which has been updated from time to time.
• Latest policy: The latest policy, introduced in 2000, is being vigorously followed.
  • It has paid great dividends, with 24 out of 29 states have achieved a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.1, which is considered the replacement level (no further population growth). 
  • The remaining states, popularly called BI- MARU states, though lagging, are also on the right course.

Flaws in the recent population control measures

• Use of coercion:
  • Global experience shows that any coercion in population control is counterproductive. 
  • The one-child policy adopted by China in the 1990s has proved disastrous, forcing the country to move to the two-child, and very recently, the three-child norm. 
  • China is now burdened with nearly a 70% elderly population with less than 30% young people to support them, a consequence which was not foreseen.
  • A domestic example of this is the forced sterilisation programme of the Emergency era (1975-77).
• Disastrous consequences for women:
  • The two-child norm has earlier shown in other states disastrous consequences for women, with many facing divorce to prevent disqualification of their husbands from contesting elections.
• The Population Foundation of India
  • has rightly pointed out that a strict limit on the number of children, like the two-child norm, will unleash a rapid increase in divorce and sex-specific abortions.
• Skewed gender ratio:
  • Couples went for large-scale female foeticide, which skewed the gender ratio even further. The child sex ratio of India has been in steady decline, dropping from 945 in 1991 to 918 in 2011.
• Does not acknowledge already declining replacement levels: 
  • India’s voluntary population policy is doing very well, having achieved the total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.1, which translates to a couple being “replaced” by two children.
  • Even the Muslims, who are thought of as being responsible for population explosion, are also reaching low replacement levels- According to NFHS-4, in 22 states, the fertility rate of Muslims was lower than that of Hindus in Bihar.