The Recent QES Estimates Are Unreliable

Context: Quarterly Employment Survey is a welcome step in the right direction, but the interpretation of the survey calls for caution.

About Quarterly Employment Survey (QES)

• Released by the Ministry of Labour and Employment for the organized (formal) sector.
• It represents establishments (or units) employing ten or more workers.
• Following are the surveyed sectors -
  • Manufacturing, construction, trade, transport, education, health, accommodation and restaurant.
  • Information Technology/Business Process Outsourcing (IT/BPO), and financial services.
• Major Highlights:
  • 29% growth of total employment in the nine selected sectors when compared with the 6^th Economic Census (EC) (2013-14).
  • Twenty-four lakh jobs lost during the lockdown in 2020 came back by the first quarter of 2021.

Shortcomings of the QES

• Limited Coverage: As formal sector accounts for merely 1.66% of the workforce (6^th EC,) but 81.3 % (Periodic Labour Force Survey, 2018-19) work in the unorganized sector. So, it cannot provide a total picture of employment dynamics.
• Outdated sample frame: QES draws its sample from the EC-2013 frame. Hence, it does not include units set up after 2013.
• Problem in comparing employment numbers of the Economic Census (EC) (2013-14)
  • EC is conducted over an entire year to provide a frame, while QES is a sample survey conducted with a short reference period.
  • EC focuses on the number of persons working on the last working day prior to the date of fieldwork in the establishments, while QES ‘s focus was on a specific quarter.
  • EC has based itself on the “enumeration blocks” of the Population Census, 2011 as the primary geographical units.
  • EC is used for generating a frame, not estimating employment. Hence, it is not a good instrument for analyzing employment trends.
• Methodological Shortcomings: QES was primarily a telephonic survey without any verification of responses of establishments.

Conclusion: Focus should be on data quality and reliability while conducting QES.