The Recent QES Estimates Are Unreliable

Newspaper Rainbow Series 7th October 2021 Save

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Context: Quarterly Employment Survey is a welcome step in the right direction, but the interpretation of the survey calls for caution.

About Quarterly Employment Survey (QES)

Released by the Ministry of Labour and Employment for the organized (formal) sector.
It represents establishments (or units) employing ten or more workers.
Following are the surveyed sectors -
- Manufacturing, construction, trade, transport, education, health, accommodation and restaurant.
- Information Technology/Business Process Outsourcing (IT/BPO), and financial services.
Major Highlights:
- 29% growth of total employment in the nine selected sectors when compared with the 6^th Economic Census (EC) (2013-14).
- Twenty-four lakh jobs lost during the lockdown in 2020 came back by the first quarter of 2021.

Shortcomings of the QES

Limited Coverage: As formal sector accounts for merely 1.66% of the workforce (6^th EC,) but 81.3 % (Periodic Labour Force Survey, 2018-19) work in the unorganized sector. So, it cannot provide a total picture of employment dynamics.
Outdated sample frame: QES draws its sample from the EC-2013 frame. Hence, it does not include units set up after 2013.
Problem in comparing employment numbers of the Economic Census (EC) (2013-14)
- EC is conducted over an entire year to provide a frame, while QES is a sample survey conducted with a short reference period.
- EC focuses on the number of persons working on the last working day prior to the date of fieldwork in the establishments, while QES ‘s focus was on a specific quarter.
- EC has based itself on the “enumeration blocks” of the Population Census, 2011 as the primary geographical units.
- EC is used for generating a frame, not estimating employment. Hence, it is not a good instrument for analyzing employment trends.
Methodological Shortcomings: QES was primarily a telephonic survey without any verification of responses of establishments.