The Real Population Worry

Context: Recently, the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report (2018) and global population projections made by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) have sparked debate over India's population projections.

Population statistics of India 

• Declining Total Fertility Rate (TFR): TFR is 2.2 in the year 2018 (2.4 in 2011) and will further decrease to reach replacement TFR of 2.1 soon; the Fertility rate of 14 states are below the replacement rate

• Declining population growth rate: Natural annual population growth rate to be 1.38 % in 2018 (Population growth rate was 1.47% in 2011) 

• The UN Population Division has estimated that India’s population would possibly peak at 161 crores around 2061 at the medium-fertility variant.

Concerns related to Population Growth in India

• Uncertainty over achievement of peak population: While the Institute of Health Metrics (IHME) estimated the peak population in India at 160 crores in 2048, the population momentum effect challenges these estimates.

• Population Momentum Effect: A result of more people entering the reproductive age group of 15-49 years due to the past high-level of fertility.

• E.g. Kerala achieved its replacement fertility level in around 1990, but its annual population growth is still 0.7% and did not stagnate, as expected previously.

•  Poor social setting:

• States with poor social setting have high TFR: E.g. Bihar (3.2), Uttar Pradesh (2.9) Madhya Pradesh (2.7), Rajasthan (2.5), Jharkhand (2.5), and Chhattisgarh (2.4) 

• Impact of Illiteracy: Illiterate women in the reproductive age group of 15-49 years have higher fertility than literate women in almost all states. 

• The unmet demand for contraception: The National Family Health Survey (2015-16) provides us estimates for the unmet need at 12.9% and contraceptive prevalence of 53.5% for India. 

• E.g. Bihar, with the highest fertility rate, also has the highest unmet need at 21.1%  and the lowest contraceptive prevalence rate of 24.1% among all the major states. 

• Preference for a male child in many states (except Kerala and Chhattisgarh):  Leading to declining sex ratio at birth, resulting in a gross imbalance in gender numbers and impact on marriage systems and harms to women.

• SRS report: sex ratio at birth in India declined marginally from 906 in 2011 to 899 in 2018.
• United Nations Population Fund’s State of World Population 2020: estimated the sex ratio at birth in India as 910, lower than all the countries in the world except China.

Way Forward:

• Increasing Female Education and economic prosperity: The percentage of illiterate women in the reproductive age group declined from 31.5% in 2011 to 13.0% in 2018, provides hope for future improvements.

• Reach the younger population: E.g. Fertility among women with Class 10 or higher education in Uttar Pradesh is greater in 2018 compared to 2011, which requires provisioning of reproductive health education and services.

• Improving the status of women: In view of the complexity of son preference resulting in gender-biased sex selection, government actions need to be supplemented by improving women’s status in the society.