The Opening in Doha

Context:  Understanding the context of the turmoil that has continued in Afghanistan for over four and a half decades is critical in appreciating the enormity of the challenges confronting intra-Afghan talks.

Issues with the Afghan Polity

• Constant political upheaval:  the overthrow of the monarchy, a nationalist dictatorship, communist rule, the mujahideen era, the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate and the current Islamic Republic. 

• Presence of foreign forces and outside interference, especially from Pakistan. 

• Social issues: sharpening ethnic divides, extremist ideologies and theologies, large migration to foreign lands, internal displacement, spread of narcotics and violence.

• Impact of globalisation: a section of Afghan urban youth linked to the world through the social media wants more open systems within an Islamic framework.

Understanding the context of intra-Afghan talks

• Taliban is in a position of strength:  as the Afghan Govt had little success in consolidating the republic and keeping the Taliban confined to a small area

• Role of the United States:

• Strategic defeat of US: as the American side was not willing to enter Pakistan territory and carry out a sustained operation to effectively tackle the Taliban.

• Retains Capabilities: the Taliban leadership and Pakistan would be aware that despite its strategic defeat and desperation to withdraw, the US retains the capacity to deny them the fruits of “victory”.

• Fragmented Afghan polity

• Issues of power sharing due to flawed presidential elections

• The polity also includes civil society and other political forces like Hizb-e-Islami which gives opportunity to the Taliban to create disunity.

• Violence to continue: Taliban would resist a ceasefire and power sharing agreement  since it would want to retain it cadres so that Central government would take them seriously

• Differences over nature of Islam

• While the Constitution commits the state to the “Holy religion of Islam” and seeks to uphold the universal declaration of human rights.

• Taliban accepts the Islamic sharia in its extreme  interpretation affecting its approach to other faiths, other Islamic mazhabs, gender issues, social conduct and apparel and even facial hair.

Going forward: 

• Creative Islamic Juriprudence: Goodwill among the negotiators and leaders buttressed with creative Islamic jurisprudence and scholarship would be needed. 

• Relinquish History: Unless all parties including their foreign patrons, especially Pakistan, are willing to substantially relinquish entrenched thinking of history, the talks will fail.

• Acceptance between communities:

• The Kabul elite would also have to make concessions on political issues and social codes

• As Taliban is Pashtun at core, it will have to address fears of non-Pashtun areas given their bitter experience in its past rule.

India’s position in Intra-Afghan talks

• Refusal to modify Afghan-approach: even as the Taliban had gained ground in the country and was getting international legitimacy

• Failure to balance diplomatic contradictions: India saw the situation Afghanistan in black and white terms, and linking it with Pakistan, it cornered itself from the issue.

• For E.g. It could have continued to strengthen its ties with Kabul and at the same time opened links with the Taliban.

Conclusion:  The talks should be Afghan owned and led for long term peace to prevail. India should continue with its traditional policy of fostering close ties with any legitimate Afghan government.