The New League of Nations

Context: For India, despite a rising China, this is a favourable geopolitical moment, which it must seize to assure its place in a loosely structured multipolar global order

Critical analysis of shifting geopolitical landscape 

• Impact of a pandemic: The pre-existing trend towards nationalist urgings, the weakening of international institutions and multilateral processes has been reinforced. (vaccine nationalism)
• Shift in centre of gravity of economy and political power and influence: From the trans-Atlantic to the trans-Pacific has been reinforced under the impact of the crisis.
  • China had gained from the pandemic:
    • First economy to see a rebound in its growth rate despite the fact that it was the first country to hit by the pandemic.
    • Regional supply chains centred on China have been reinforced rather than disrupted.
    • China will emerge in pole position in the geopolitical sweepstakes commencing in 2021. 
    • Reduction in power gap with the United States and increase in power gap with India.

Positives for India in shifting geopolitical landscape

• Multi polarity will sustain:
  • Neither the United States with a diminished power or China with an enhanced power can singly or as a duopoly manage a much more diffused distribution of economic and military capabilities.
  • Multilateral approaches and adherence to the principle of equitable burden-sharing are the only ways to solve challenges that require global and collaborative responses like -
    • Climate change, cybersecurity, space security, terrorism, drug trafficking, money laundering.
• Foreign policy prospect for India:
  • India can push for empowered institutions of international governance and multilateral processes.
  • Assure its security through multipolar order - India can deal with the Chinese challenge.
  • Use techniques of non-alignment movement for mobilization.
  • Many countries see India as a potential and credible countervailing (benign) power to resist Chinese ambitions. (weaponization of economic interdependence)

Conclusion: India needs to position itself as the most open and competitive destination for trade and investment offering both scale and political stability to attract significant flow of capital, technology and knowledge to accelerate its own modernization.