The Message In Alaska, From Washington To Beijing

Context: A critical analysis of promises and messages from Quad summit in shaping the future of the world.

Rise of the Quad: With the recent joint statement by the leader of the USA, India, Japan and Australia, the Quad exemplifies the following features:

• America is back: To play a leading role in other regions as it views China as its primary challenger.
• Tackling Chinese aggression: For E.g. China’s coercion of Australia, their harassment around the Senkaku Islands, their aggression on the border with India.
• Expanded possibilities of the Indo-Pacific: Between US, Australia and Japan - 3C’s working groups established on COVID­19 vaccines, Climate Change and Critical Technology, and a messaging to “4th C” (China).
• Vaccine diplomacy: The vaccine initiative is a major boost for India’s pharmaceutical industry, acting as a proven base - already exported 58 million doses to nearly 71 countries worldwide.
• Climate change, Return of the US in the Paris Accord was welcomed and has promised to restart funding of global Green Climate Fund. (India still awaiting $1.4 billion for solar tech. in 2016).
• Technologies: A Quad working group to cooperate on critical technologies offers India an opportunity to reduce its dependence on Chinese telecom equipment & finding new sources of rare earth minerals.
• Maritime Security: Collaboration, including in maritime security, to meet challenges to the rules-­based maritime order in the East and South China Seas,

Issues running contradictory to the Quad:

• Trade Protectionism: Other members of Quad have opposed India’s pleas at the World Trade Organization, which is filed along with South Africa in October 2020.
  • It was about seeking a waiver from certain provisions of the Agreement on Trade­-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights for the prevention, containment and treatment of COVID­19.
• Incoherence over data localisation: which has led India to walk out of the Japan­-led “Osaka track decla­ ration” at the G­20 in 2019.
• Questions over joining a military alliance: India is the only Quad member, not a part of the military alliance that binds the others,
  • The only Quad country with a land boundary with China and the only Quad country which lives in a neighbourhood where China has made deep inroads.
  • The attacks on Line of Actual Control has posed 3 - long term impacts on India’s strategic planning:
    • Active resource mobilisation: Government must now expend more resources, troops, infrastructure funds to the LAC.
    • Threat of a ‘two-front situation’: Territorial threat from both China and Pakistan.
    • Shift in priority: India’s continental threat perception will need to be prioritised against any maritime commitments the Quad may claim.

Way forward: Directions for India

• Strategic autonomy: Quad to broaden the space for India’s principle of Strategic Autonomy, not narrow its bilateral choices.
• Geography and ideology: India’s choices for its Quad strategy will continue to be shaped by its location on land and its close ideological friendships with fellow democracies.