The Long and the Short of India’s Naypyitaw dilemma

Context: New concerns and dilemma for India with respect to Myanmar due to a recent military coup led by General Min Aung Hlaing in Myanmar.

Concerns in Indo-Myanmar relations

• Uncertainties in Myanmar’s democracy: Due to the recent military coup. However, even before the coup, Myanmar’s democracy was inadequate and intolerant towards minorities. For E.g. - 
  • Bloody crackdown against the minority Muslim community in 2017.
  • Misconduct at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
• Possibilities of political realignments in Myanmar: Due to strong reactions and the threat of sanctions from the United States and the West in the wake of the recent coup.
• China factor: Chinese footprint in Myanmar may increase with the military in power.
  • Myanmar is more likely to have closer links with China as other major countries are imposing sanctions on them.
  • China has no ‘baggage’ of democratic norms; it can easily engage with undemocratic Myanmar.
• India’s Political dilemma: While the dual power centres of the military and the civilian government were more suited for India, it now struggles to respond to the military coup in Myanmar
  • Choosing between norms and interests: i.e. the normative concerns of the International community and National Interest.
    • India’s Myanmar policy is more likely to be a function of interests rather than norms: Due to change in regional geopolitics with the arrival of China.
  • Cannot support or oppose the military:
    • As support amounts to a stand against the democratic norms: like the rule of law and other democratic processes.
    • Cannot outrightly oppose the military as they were cooperative with Indian military in the past to contain the north-eastern insurgencies, coordinated action and intelligence sharing.
• India’s internal security concern: Myanmar military’s action may lead to a rise of extremism among Rohingya community which would not be in India’s interests.

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