The Indo-Pacific is all a-churn in response to Joe Biden’s victory

Context: The Indo-Pacific region’s geostrategic and trade dynamics are in flux and may throw up opportunities for India to capitalize on.

Recent development that is advantageous for the Indo-Pacific region

• Explicit strategic push by the United States (US):
  • With suggestions for the establishment of a new fleet closer to the intersection of the Indian and Pacific oceans;
  • America’s participation in the annual Malabar naval exercises in the northern Arabian Sea involving Australia, India and Japan.
  • America, with the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing group (Australia, Britain, Canada, New Zealand), warned China against breach of international obligations under its Sino-British Joint Declaration.
• Declining regional relationship with China:
  • Australia considers Chinese development as a threat and therefore banned 5G network building by Huawei and called for an inquiry into origins of coronavirus.
  • Japan and an Australia recently signed a Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) that will allow troops from the two countries to train and conduct the joint military exercise.
  • Concerns of Vietnam and Thailand related to illegal tapping of off-shore resources by China.

Challenges to the Indo-Pacific:

• Rising regional partnerships: Japan signalled to expand the 11-member Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) trade pact, to include China.
• American Protectionism: It is unlikely that the new US administration would renew partnership with China.
  • The US’s integrationist approach towards China in the 1990s, a posture that dramatically altered the global balance of power in China’s favour, prevents the US to indulge with China.
  • Economic decoupling by the US: has provided an edge to China to focus on the regional partnerships like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which accounts for 30% of the world’s economy and one-third of its population.

Conclusion: The Indian response to this flux is being shaped by its own struggle with Chinese expansionism along the Himalayan border. Policymakers should manage the challenge while making the cost of opportunities.