The Good Neighbour

Context:  The economic rise of Bangladesh (as predicted by the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) World Economic Outlook) is also an opportunity for India, but certain hurdles remain.

5 Regional implications of Bangladesh’s economic success

• Changing international perception about the sub-continent: 

• For the last five decades, the subcontinent became an arena of global interests based on Pakistan, its nuclear weapon, claims on Kashmir, wars with India and role in Afghanistan.

• Bangladesh provides a positive narrative about the subcontinent’s prospects.

• Changing economic weights of Bangladesh and Pakistan in South Asia:

• IMF suggests that Pakistan’s economy will contract while Bangladesh continues to grow.
• Currency strength of Bangladesh is better than that of Pakistan due to better control on population growth and Inflation.

• Can accelerate regional integration in the eastern subcontinent:

• Region’s prospects for a collective economic advance remained dim due to Pakistan’s non-cooperation with India and its support for cross-border terror. 
• E.g. as seen in failures of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).
• The rise of Bangladesh will strengthen regionalism in the form of groupings like Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal (BBIN).

• A shift of focus from East Asia to South Asia: Countries like the United States (US) will look up to the possibilities in Bangladesh along with India and Pakistan in the South Asian region.

• Boost for development of India’s eastern and north-eastern states:  

• Better integration of Bangladesh’s economy with West Bengal and connectivity with landlocked Northeast would provide a huge boost for eastern India.

Hurdles against better connectivity with Bangladesh

• Negative politics: The prospects for better connectivity are overshadowed by negative politics in India.
• State-specific issues: Lack of political enthusiasm in West Bengal and the issue of migration in Assam are major constraints against better integration.
• For, E.g. Poisonous rhetoric in India around the Citizenship Amendment Act had undone the positive impacts of boundary settlement in 2015 and solving the maritime boundary disputes.

Conclusion: India should jointly develop and pursue with Bangladesh, an ambitious framework for shared prosperity to consolidate the golden chapter in India-Bangladesh relations