The Contours Of The Endgame In Afghanistan

Context: Change of Administration in the United States (US) forced a review on the policy of immediate complete withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan.

India’s commitments towards Afghanistan:

• Flourishing bilateral relations: With frequent and productive high-level exchanges between Indian and Afghan leaders.
• Democratic and developmental commitments: India stayed on course with long-term commitment to supporting state institutions in Afghanistan and expanding its development partnership.

Background

• 2013: Barack Obama: Announced exit of US forces from Afghanistan.
• 2017-2021: Donald Trump: Actively pursued policy of immediate withdrawal from Afghanistan.
• 2020: Doha Agreement: Concluded between the US Government and Taliban; Calls for removal of US forces from Afghanistan at earliest as May 1, 2021.
• 2021: Joe Biden: Change of Administration in US forced a review on immediate withdrawal policy.
  • Objectives: To bring a just and durable peace through political negotiations in a manner that Afghanistan remains united, sovereign, and democratic and preserves gains.
  • Road map: A ‘new, inclusive government’ with an immediate 50% share for the Taliban in an interim government, as a quid pro quo for a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire.

Issues with the withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan:

• Threat to the security situation in Afghanistan: Without US forces, the security situation will deteriorate, and the Taliban could make rapid gains.
• Continuing terrorist linkages: Despite the Doha Agreement, the Taliban has not ended its ties with al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups. Nor have intra-Afghan negotiations progressed.
• Pakistan factor: Without checking Pakistan’s negative role in supporting the Taliban and other groups, a sustainable peace agreement is improbable.
  • US has held that Pakistan is strategically more important to the US than Afghanistan.

Way Forward: for India -

• Direct engagement: With leaders on the ground who will determine the course of the peace process
• Engage with all stakeholders in Afghanistan: Patriotic Afghan people look to India as a friend and expect solidarity.
• Assist materially: If the US withdrawal worked out, India must step up to defend the Afghan republic.
• Explore commonalities with key countries in dealing with a rapidly evolving situation—E.g. India-Iran engagements in Afghanistan in the 1990s.