The Complex Geopolitics of Our Times Offers Us A Big Opportunity

Context: India could play a leadership role by helping set common standards for the democratic world in this new era of globalization.

Multidimensional geopolitical puzzle

• Three Levels
• 1. Two superpowers – US and China
  2. Traditional powers – G7
  3. Emerging players and important states recalcitrant to the traditional powers: moving towards the emerging superpower.

• Stark differences between power houses: Disagreement ranges into purpose of state, concept of privacy and its extent, understanding of ‘public good’, rule of law, and separation of judiciary from the executive.
• Changing force of globalisation: Global trade is an incorrect barometer of globalization and it should be understood along with complex tapestry of geopolitics.
  • Intense competition in traditional areas of globalization covering tariffs, taxation, immigration and capital flow. Capital and immigration is bound to be mobile despite tensions.
  • Replacing existing multilateral arrangements on trade: by regional or bilateral arrangements.
• Conflicts over technology and its growing primacy in life:
  • Divergence regarding values on global cooperation: with respect to data (all forms like storage, use or sharing), technology (quantum computing, biotech and cyber), communications (5G) and the standards around them.
  • Lack of global agreement on standards: pushing emergence of superpower sphere of influences.
  • Spill over of conflicts: Restricting cooperation in critical areas such as climate change, health, space and nuclear weapons.
• Areas of convergence: Need to address global warning, introduction carbon taxes and incentivising renewable energy is gathering pace.
  • Space sector: Entry of private sector opened new avenues and cooperation on sharing of international stations have long way to go.
  • Pandemic management: World largely understands that we are not safe until we all are.  
  • De-nuclearisation: Build-up of nuclear arsenals has slowed and all countries armed with such weapons recognize that their current stockpiles are enough to destroy the world.

Way forward: Efficiently navigating complications created by antagonistic superpowers

• Recognise emerging world order: Consider shedding traditional inhibitions and align itself, upholding its priorities.
• Work judiciously and take the lead in creating common technology standards. 
• E.g. Quad-plus formulation in creating data protocols, laying out ‘monopoly’ definitions for large tech firms, and forging standards for taxation, cyber coalitions and privacy.
• Creating joint standards for democratic world will be an important move for India that could establish it as an important global player with less cost to itself.
• Work towards creating institutions and fair protocols: and avoid standoff with Big Tech companies (Amazon, Google, Facebook, Apple, Twitter).