The Climate Deadline

Context: In the light of recently published 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the climate crisis deserves sober, continuing analysis, deliberation and action. For this, we must understand what the science says, what the politics delivers, and what the economy demands.

Science around climate change: According to the IPCC’s latest report, it is likely that average rise in temperatures will breach the 1.5°C barrier within the next two decades.

• Rising global temperatures: Globally, average surface temperatures have already risen by 1.09°C between 1850 and 1900, and 2010 and 2019, thanks to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases.
• IPCC shares different scenarios on shared socioeconomic pathways and different levels of radiative forcing.
• If we followed high fossil fuel development (doubling emissions by 2050), temperatures would rise by 4.4°C (range of 3.3-5.7°C) by 2100. 
• If a more sustainable pathway were pursued (with net-zero emissions by 2060 and negative emissions thereafter), average global temperature rise would be 1.4°C (range of 1.0-1.8°C).
• Human influence: Less than 0.1°C of the warming observed since the pre-industrial era is thanks to natural reasons. Human influence is very likely the main reason behind glacial retreat since the 1990s. Since observations began, glaciers have lost the maximum mass during 2010-19.
• India’s vulnerability: If warming exceeds 4°C, India could see about 40 % increase in precipitation annually, leading to extreme rainfall events.
• Since 1990, more than 300 such events have resulted in damages exceeding Rs 5.6 lakh crore.
• Rising sea levels: Average rate of sea-level rise was 1.3 mm per year during 1901-71. Scientists say with high confidence that this rate increased to 3.7 mm annually during 2006-18.
• Even with warming restricted to 1.5°C, we are still on course for more than 2 metres of sea-level rise beyond this century.

Politics around climate change: The issues with distributed responsibilities have failed to deter the largest emitters.

• China and the United States have already emitted 129 GtCO2 and 344 GtCO2, respectively, between 1990-2010.
• Despite their self-laudatory targets, China would consume 87 % of the global carbon space (if it reached net-zero in 2060) and the US would eat up 26 % (if it reached net-zero in 2050).
• Thus, mere announcements of net-zero targets do little to retard the “carbon grab” of the largest emitters.
• Rich countries emitted ~25 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2eq) more than their estimated emission allowance during 2008-20, thanks to non-participation in pre-2020 climate agreementsand misuse of accounting loopholes.

Economics around climate change: Developmental aspirations of developing nations needs energy use ; India’s per capita incomes, energy consumption and carbon footprint are well below the global average.

Way Forward:

• Follow the scientific solutions: To stay within the 1.5°C limit, starting in 2020, the remaining global carbon budget is 300-500 giga- tonnes of carbon dioxide (GtCO2) (with a like- lihood of 50 %-83 %).
  • IPCC says that in order to stabilise rise in temperatures, two things have to happen: 
    • Anthropogenic emissions must become net- zero;
    • In the interim, cumulative emissions cannot exceed a global carbon budget. 
  • It will become imperative to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere and repair the climate in critical regions, such as the poles.
• Political solution: Climate justice demands that developed countries now take steps to free up carbon space for others. The claim on a fair share of the carbon budget is not a licence to pollute.
• Economic solution: Shift from energy to the economy - India must tap –
  • New technology frontiers (green hydrogen), 
  • New business models (distributed and digitalised services, for distributed energy, EV charging, cold chains), 
  • New construction materials (low-carbon cement, recycled plastic), 
  • New opportunities in the circular economy of minerals, municipal waste and agricultural residue.
  • New practices for sustainable agriculture and food systems.