Taking the Long View with China

Context: Asia is big enough for both Asian giants (India and China) to have complementary roles, share prosperity and be independent of each other and of the West.

Hurdles in Indo-China relationship:

• China’s reluctance to recognise “multipolar Asia”.
• Territorial issues: Both claims Eastern Ladakh
• Chinese Expansion: Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Military hegemony and Technology concerns - 
  • Increasing strength in Pacific Ocean and increasing Air force.
  • China, facing technological sanctions from the U.S., puts India on the harder spot.

Reasons for which India should have closer ties with China

• Opened space for boundary settlement: through India’s Year-End Review (Ministry of Defence) that refers to the “sanctity of our claims in Eastern Ladakh” instead of the term “border”.
• Change in stance of the U.S: as it sees China as a ‘strategic competitor’ rather than a ‘strategic rival’. (drawing down the controversy over joining U.S.­ led Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad).
• India’s participation in both the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, led by Beijing and Moscow and designed to balance the spread of Western interests.
• Increasing Financial Strength of China:
  • Chinese renminbi has gained strength (BRI countries use renminbi for transactions)
  • Trade leader: China is the world’s largest trading economy.
  • Economic dominance: Projected soon to become the world’s largest economy.
  • Contains the largest number of Fortune Global 500 companies.
  • Close financial ties with many countries: 
    • China has stitched investment agreements with the European Union (EU) and most of Asia.
    • China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has increased its membership to 100.
    • Second-biggest financial contributor to the United Nations (UN).
• West has given up on containing the rise of China: Evident from EU’s reaching out to China and seeing them as partner, competitor, and economic rival depending on the policy area in question.
• Congruence with China’s interests in the UN: Xi Jinping’s “community with shared future for mankind”, and Narendra Modi’s “climate justice”, challenge the frame of the liberal order.
• Enhanced ‘soft power’ of China: submitted more high-impact research papers than the U.S.

Way forward: For India to share prosperity with China and stay Independent of each other and of the West.

• Enable Quad to supplement the BRI: in line with other strategic concerns in the region. 
  • E.g. developing their scientific, technological capacity and digital economy, based on India’s digital stack and financial resources of other Quad members, will resonate with Asia and Africa.
• India should take up ‘bridging role’ in global governance: to accommodate other views for issue-based understandings by pushing for permanent membership in UN Security Council.
• Push for reciprocity in data sharing: for sharing prosperity that will gain traction with other countries.
• Providing a different model of development: other than the US and China;
  • The steps to a $5 trillion economy, shift to indigenous capital military equipment, and a new Science, Technology and Innovation Policy underline impact, capacity and interests.