Shaping India’s Green Future

Context: There are two broad development pathways for India: A net-zero approach and a low-carbon approach, of which the former is more preferable.

Need for sustainable development:

• Rise in extreme weather events: Cyclones Tauktae and Yaas have wreaked death and destruction on India’s western and eastern coasts.
• Zoonotic disease spread: Scientists have shown that zoonotic (such as SARS, MERS, and AIDS) viruses are spilling over into us from animals because we are swamping their natural habitats.
• Climate change: Climate change is a slow-motion global disaster.
  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, global carbon emission must reach net-zero by 2050 to keep warming within 1.5 degrees centigrade by 2100.
  • Unfortunately, current emissions will warm up the planet by 3 degrees!

Ways in which India can move towards a more sustainable and greener future:

• Net-zero approach: Along with major emitters, India is confronting immense pressure to bring carbon emission down to net-zero by mid-century. This will require committing ourselves to a legally binding net-zero target by a fixed year.
  • There would be coordinated policies and actions to ensure rapid peaking in carbon emission and a dramatic decline thereafter.
  • It could lead to massive investments in green technologies and equipment (India need $100 billion per year in green investments to reach a net-zero target by mid-century).
  • These massive green investments will drive fast economic growth and create high-quality jobs.
  • These green investments will require industries to invest in competitive and advanced technologies leading us to the Green Frontier, representing long-term, sustainable prosperity.
  • Diplomatically, a legally binding net-zero target could win us enormous global goodwill and lead to much more supportive technology transfer and global trade agreements.
• Low carbon approach: Rather than the disruptive net-zero approach, we could follow the low-carbon approach. Diplomatically, India is not obliged to reduce carbon and can follow a gradual glide path.
  • Instead of our carbon emission peaking by 2030 or so, we could peak by 2050 or 2060. Our emission could then get to a stable, low-carbon level by 2080 or even later.
  • We could come up with clear sectoral targets — such as the current 450-Gw target for solar energy or various building efficiency standards.
  • It would also provide a clear sectoral road map for the private sector for its investment plans.
  • Importantly, it would allow us to slowly decommission many of our high-carbon sources, such as coal-fired power plants and diesel trucks (preventing sudden job loss).
  • Overall, this could be a more practical approach than committing to a net-zero target, which may impose high transition costs for our people.

Way Forward: The net-zero approach is favoured over the low-carbon approach because of –

• Efficiency: Net-zero technologies, such as solar power and electric vehicles are likely to be much more efficient.
• High carbon tax: The rest of the world might impose high carbon taxes on exports from carbon-emitting countries, which is harmful to Indian exports.
• Sparking an Entrepreneurial Explosion: By declaring a legally binding net-zero target and building the necessary state capacity to build a more competitive, sustainable future.