Responding to Southeast Asian Concerns

Context: Recently released the State of Southeast Asia: 2021 survey points for sobering reading and a reality check for India’s foreign policy establishment in the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) region.

Key Findings of State of Southeast Asia: 2021 Survey

• Declining trust in China: Despite China’s influential power and pandemic diplomacy, it poses a threat to domestic affair of ASEAN countries.
  • China’s rise is considered as the revisionist and hegemonic power of the region.
  • Threatens ASEAN solidarity: which is divided between beneficiaries of Beijing bandwagon and those zealous about their sovereign interests.
• Declining confidence and positivity towards India: 
  • Insignificant strategic impact:  due to the limited success of Look East and Act East policies.
  • Poor geo-economic engagement as a result of rising protectionism and nationalism of India.
    • ASEAN sees India’s exit from the trading bloc like RCEP as damaging India-ASEAN relations.
    • Declining soft power diplomacy, as fewer than 1% of respondents select India as the preferred country for higher education or tourism. 
    • Last year, only 2% selected Hindi as most useful and beneficial language for professional development (India comes last, behind the West, Japan, China, and Korea).
  • Lacking capacity of global leadership: as India is preoccupied with its domestic and subcontinental affairs.

• Rise in preference for aligning with United States (from 54% to 62%): while that for third parties (Japan and EU) declined from about 15% to 12%. Preference for India declined slightly to under 7%. 
  • ASEAN considers economic power and upholding a rules-based international order as the main criteria in their choice of outside powers. 
• Improving Indian perception: as a responsible stakeholder that respects international law, and there is a marginal improvement in the manner the region sees India’s military power.
• India’s role in countering China’s hegemony: it is unclear if the EU and Japan can protect the interests of South-East Asian countries.

Conclusion: India must set up economic, maritime and military (through Quad) cooperation with ASEAN to strengthen its capacity and will for global leadership.