Quad Strategic Opportunity Or Quagmire

Context: Contextualising the importance and limitations of Quad for India in light of recent developments.

Significance of Quad:

• To counter China’s expanding footprint: In South Asia and Indian Ocean Region over the last few years.
  • China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative proposing logistical connectivity across Eurasia and the Indian Ocean, is viewed as encroachments into India’s strategic space.
  • India responded with up-gradation of its naval capabilities and enhancement of ties with the Indian Ocean Region littoral states and other major powers in the region.
• Shared concern and deepening security ties with US: Due to the rising tension in the Indo-Pacific (that views the western Pacific and the Indian Ocean as an integrated geopolitical space)
  • Interoperability of defence equipment and training based on defence purchases, frequent land and sea exercises, and agreements harmonising the two countries’ military doctrines and operations.
  • US State Department has regarded it as having “essential momentum and important potential”.

Key concerns

• Reluctance to join an overt anti-China coalition:
  • For E.g., at the Shangri La Dialogue in 2018, Prime Minister Narendra Modi described the Indo­-Pacific as a “geographical definition” and denied it as a “strategy” directed against any country.
• Ignores the principle areas of security concerns: India, only Quad member that shares an un-demarcated 3500 km land border with China.
  • With the recent Ladakh skirmishes, China has given India a rude reminder that India’s security concerns lie in its northern borders, not the west Pacific.
• Lack of strategic vision: Inability to deter China in the West Pacific and its member’s anxiety to maintain close ties with China.
  • E.g. In 2020, China became India’s number one trade partner, with two-way trade at $77 billion.
  • Again, China-U.S. trade continues to favour China, American investors hold $1 trillion of Chinese equity, and 75% of US companies in China say they will continue to invest there.
• Core structural problem: Narrow US aspirations
  • Biased interests: US interests lie in maintaining its global hegemony.
  • Folly of ‘rules-based world order: Despite the rhetoric, rules are mostly violated by US.
  • US’s self-centricity: In defining and pursuing its interests, leading to risks of major policy shifts due to government change or domestic lobbies.
  • Member’s concerns: Quad hardly serves security interests of its members.

Way forward: Lessons for India from stand-off at Ladakh

• Focus national attention and resources: in areas of abiding its interest that is the border, the neighbours and the Indian Ocean.
• Rebuilding of ties with China: Will help India to dilute its focus on Indo-Pacific and Quad.
• Highlighted deficiencies at home: Government vision of national ethos on the basis of narrow and exclusive political ideology threatening India’s commitment to democratic pluralism.
• A cohesive strategic vision: A foreign policy cannot be a part-­time concern (which has often been ad hoc, reactive and short term), in terms of priority and attention, it should be on a par with domestic affairs.