Quad and the Global Churn

Context: India’s policy towards Quad is challenged by continuing ambiguities regarding geo-economic initiatives of the new forum. Engaging Quad partners is a rare opportunity and involves engineering internal changes.

Arguments in favour of  India’s joining of Quad:

• Confronting expansive Chinese aggression: The policy discourse on Quad is about blunting China’s ambition to exercise regional hegemony.

• Possible Expansion: Its geo-economic agenda has drawn South Korea, Vietnam and New Zealand into the post-pandemic consultations in the so-called “Quad Plus” format. 

• Favours India’s Economic Decoupling:

• India’s withdrawal from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) in 2019 and its opposition to China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

• Limiting trade and investment links: India has taken up active economic measures against China to limit trade and investment links after Ladakh incidents.

• India’s opportunity to be a part of global supply chains: The US is looking to construct a new network of supply chins among America’s trusted friends and partners.

Challenges to India’s joining the Quad 

• The United States in Dilemma Over China: The upcoming election the US has made policy decision regarding China more ambiguous than ever.
• Difficulty in Disentangling the Web of Economic Interdependence woven over the last four decades with China.
• Greater influence of “Climate Hawks” in the Biden’s team might have no time for the “China Hawks”, and hence there might be a return to a policy of engagement with China.
• The Expected Continuation of Protectionism: Democratic Party wants a break from the excessive globalisation of the last few decades that have de-industrialised America and off-shored jobs. 

• Democratic Party is more insistent on America First and has promised not to sign any new free trade agreements without first investing in American workers.
• Biden’s industrial policies will surely run counter to the rules of the World Trading Organisation (WTO).

• Issues in India’s economic policy: Diplomatic consultation on reorienting supply chains will not be helpful if the reforms in the economic policy are unable to cope up with the global trading system.
• For, E.g. other countries in “Quad Plus” including Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Australia and New Zealand would find it easier to work with the US as compared to India.
• Trade with the US could be tougher due linking of commerce to human rights, labour rights and environmental standards. (If the Democratic Party is elected.)
• Unable to clinch Bilateral Trade deals: India’s current focus is on drawing foreign investment into domestic manufacturing but is unable to conclude bilateral trade deals.

Conclusion: Engaging the Quad partners on reforming the China-centred economic globalisation is a rare geo-economic opportunity for India. But it is also a big challenge, for it involves engineering much internal change.