Population (and other) Divides

Context: With the recent estimates suggesting decline in the Indian population, the rise in the various demographic related divides must be addressed sooner than later.

Indian Population Trends: According to the technical committee of the National Commission on Population -United Nations

• Peak at 2050: India’s population should peak at about 1.6 billion shortly after the mid-point of the century, and decline after that.
• Replacement Rate: The number of childbirths per woman (the total fertility rate) having dropped below 2.2, or barely the replacement rate, India has crossed a critical population hump.
• Expected lowest decadal growth rate since independence.

Implication of trends

• Changing Demographic Divide: With a falling birth rate, the annual cohort of new school-going children has already started dropping from 25 million.

• At the other end, senior citizens will grow sharply in number.
• We will need fewer schoolrooms, but more hospitals, hospices, and old-age homes.

• Urban-Population Divide: Half the population in South and West will be urban in 16 years.

• Rising Significance of City Administration: 

• The birth of city-centric political parties (as the Shiv Sena once was) could create pressure from below.
• Some heads of urban administrations will become as important as chief ministers.
• State governments will resist change.

• Income-Population Divide:

• The north-south divide: While there is a rise in the population in the north, there is a decline in income as compared to the south.

•  Bihar alone will add 50% more people than all of the southern states put together; The share of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in the total population will grow from 25% to 30%.
• The south and west already enjoy per capita incomes that are three times the levels in the heartland.

Challenges:

• Deciding the quantum of fiscal transfers: which confronts the Finance Commission.
• Risks of Rifts: Diverging interests because of the north-south divide and the ruling party dominance in the former.

Way Forward:

• Tackle the Urban Challenge: Centre must push for the changes from above.

• Changing the way cities are planned and managed:

• Density rather than sprawl to facilitate mass (rather than personal) transport, 
• mixed-use areas instead of zoning to reduce commuting distances, 
• sensible property taxation to finance development, 
• the provision of public spaces and institutions while taming builders’ lobbies, 
• abandoning building setback rules that wasteland.
• Inefficient industries tom be shut down and release the valuable real estate for city-centre renewal. For, E.g. in case of Inefficient metro-based ports like Kolkata.

• Improving governance standards in the heartland: by bringing convergence to tackle the divide.

• Through Urbanization: which also reduces the impact of caste through urbanization.

• New cities, industrial clusters, and centres of excellence must emerge.

• State Reorganization: For, E.g. trifurcation of Uttar Pradesh for better management; to improve the all-round connectivity to the hinterland states.

Conclusion: Convergence, so far a chimaera, must be made a reality.