Not A Third Wave, Please

Context: In the wake of second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, reporting five times the average peak value compared to the first peak, vaccinating all adults as quickly as possible is the only way forward.

Positive state initiatives in vaccination:

• Increased vaccine production: GoI approved Rs.4,500 crore advance payments to Serum Institute of India (SII) and Bharat Biotech. Currently has production capability is more than three billion doses.
  • This is In line with international practice -- For e.g. US, under Operation Warp Speed programme, allocated more than $1 billion to vaccine-makers, Germany provided support of $450 million.
• Vaccine procurement: GoI is engaging bilaterally with other nations to procure vaccines and, reportedly India could have more than 200 crore vaccine doses by August-December.
• Prolonging the gap between doses: Independent research finds that the Covishield vaccine is 81% effective for those who took their second dose at least 12 weeks after the first.

Challenges ahead

• Constrained capacity expansion: Due to shortage of inputs.
  • Hence, compulsory licensing of vaccine, as some are demanding, will not work unless raw material supply is secured and sustained.
• Vaccines are not being considered as public goods: While public goods are defined as non-excludable and non-rival like law enforcement, vaccines are not being considered as such.
  • Since the situation is the same for everyone, all agents ultimately defect. For e.g. States are already demanding that Covid vaccines be made freely available, and also while they have floated global tenders, pricing often remains oligopolistic.
  • The reported global Covid-19 vaccine price range is between $2 and $40, and if inelastic supply plays its role, then the pricing can be steep.

Way forward

• Ensure enhanced vaccination:
  • Since 55.3% of the all-India cases are of people under-40, while the share of deaths in Mumbai of people under-50 is 13.9%, it is necessary to vaccinate under-45 quickly.
  • At least 65% of India’s population could get their first shot by October.
  • Experience of other countries shows that infections stabilise after 15% of the population receives the second dose, with herd immunity kicking in from 60%.
• Ensure compulsory licensing of input products: To tackle the shortage of inputs.
• Leverage extra time: As Covid-positive patients have antibodies lasting up to eight months, Centre must carry out administrative reforms in areas like the supply of oxygen and medical infrastructure.