No need for a drastic population policy

Context: Assam and Uttar Pradesh are proposing to bring in or bringing in draft legislation aimed at controlling their populations. But evidences suggest there is no need for a drastic population policy?

Why there is no need for a drastic population policy? 

• Total fertility rate is already in fall: According to a document on population projection, published by Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare in 2019, U.P. will reach a replacement rate of 2.1 by 2025, and Assam by 2020.
• Arguments based on religious demography is wrong: Eg. In 1998-99, TFR in U.P. was 3.87 for Hindus and 4.76 for Muslims. In 2015-16, it decreased to 2.67 for Hindus and 3.1 for Muslims. 
• This means that TFR declined by 1.2 for Hindus and by 1.66 for Muslims, which is higher.
• The fertility trend is similar for Assam as well.
• Fertility depends on socio-economic characteristics: Like education, income, maternal and child health conditions, and other associated factors.
• District-wise data shows fertility rate is higher in districts that fall back on socio-economic indicators.
• Risks of unintended consequences: Pertaining preference for sons in a patriarchal and caste-dominated society means any coercive population control measures like the two-child norm will only increase sex-selective abortions of girl children and female infanticide.
• Problem of ageing: Strict one-child policy in China resulted in an increase in the proportion of the aged population.
• Fewer younger workers availability can result in a slowdown of economic growth.
• India, as per the population projection report, the proportion of people aged 60 years and above will increase from 13.8% in 2011 to 23.1% in 2036. 
• The two-child norm will only further aggravate the problem of ageing.

Conclusion: The fertility behaviour of a couple is a “calculus of conscious choice.”

• India’s decades-old population policy has achieved replacement level fertility in the country without taking any coercive measures. 
• Governments should have faith in these time-tested policies and respect the choices of people rather than impose warped and motivated ideas regarding demography on the people.