More Than About Hot Air

Context: The renewed climate change conversation between India and the US is at a delicate starting point from where it can either turn into a great opportunity — even a gamechanger — or just turn ideological and go the CTBT (Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty) way — unsigned, unratified and unfinished.

Concerns related to India-Us Climate Project:

• Low credibility of the US with regards to climate change: Just as the CTBT, there is insufficient bipartisanship to sustain this political effort.
• Tricky climate finance: From interest rates to unmentioned compliance requirements, there is a whole gamut of political and economic considerations to be made.
  • If India started investing in zero carbon-emitting technologies this year itself to hope to meet the 2050 deadline, the costs of this transition would surpass $2 trillion by current estimates.
  • At the moment, there’s no financing on the table. And mere pledges won’t work, especially after the unmet $100 billion Paris commitment to developing countries.

Way Forward: To improve the India-US relationship in the climate change project.

• Highlighting India’s credibility in fulfilling in commitments:
  • According to the Climate Action Tracker that measures country performance on their Paris commitments, India is bracketed as ‘2 degrees compatible’, while the US is ‘critically insufficient’ and China ‘highly insufficient.
  • Example of Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and India: While on the one hand, China did not stop proliferation even after signing the NPT, on the other hand, India, while not having signed the NPT, still complied with all the norms in practice.
• Generate effective political expediency: For e.g., while China has rarely lived up to its international commitments, still the western countries have looked the other way.
  • The recent EU-China trade investment agreement is another instance of such expediency.
• Develop a project-minded approach: This would mean setting up building blocks with technology and finance, putting in place a framework through which this could be channelised and executed with realistic expectations.
  • This involves acknowledging that it is impossible for India to shut coal-based plants.