Let’s Get Real

Context: We have an unprecedented health crisis, with 30 million infections and one million deaths. India is now at the Centre of this world crisis — with close to six million cases and the fastest growth rate.

The State of Economy due to pandemic

• Global:  World gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to fall between 5 and 10% this year.

• India: 

• India’s GDP dropped by 24 per cent in the first quarter

• Expected GDP fall for 2020-21 is 10-15%

Reasons for the bad state of the economy in India

• Stringent lockdown

• In late March, with just 600 cases of COVID infection in the country, we initiated the world’s most stringent lockdown
• Lockdowns were too draconian for a country like ours with such a large informal sector and no social safety net

• Virus disruption

• The spectre of the virus haunts recovery, particularly depressing travel, tourism and retail — all major employment sectors.
• Immediate challenge in the healthcare sector.

Suggestions to handle this crisis

• Acknowledge the problem and take it seriously

• Compare our performance with the global performance using data both in absolute terms and per million population

• Learn from others: 

• Learn from the best experiences in controlling the virus — Germany, Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Kerala, Dharavi.
• Democracy is not a problem in controlling the virus: Eg-The performance of many democrats like Taiwan, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Kerala
• Possible to control the virus in High population density areas: South Korea and Taiwan have twice the population density of India and had done exceptionally well.
• If India had controlled mortality as well as Kerala, we would have 21,000 deaths instead of 90,000

• Rely on science and expertise: 

• Rely on our many good scientists and doctors to set policy direction and not in administration.

• Let science and expertise coordinate what we do, not bureaucrats.

• Ensure Coordination: 

• Work collaboratively between the Centre, state, and city.
• For lowering mortality rate, It requires a coordinated effort between the city health authorities, doctors and hospitals.

• Communicate with the people:

• We must communicate that we are opening up to restore economic activity and warn people that the virus is spreading faster, but we are hardly communicating anything.

• Citizens should take the lead:

• For, E.g., People should refuse to enter any enclosed space if even one person is not wearing a mask

Conclusion

Let’s get real: We cannot have life-as-usual, business-as-usual, or a vibrant economy till COVID  is in control.