Is India Nearing Herd Immunity?

Context: Data released by Centre for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU) showcases that only India stands out with a flattening curve among those that had earlier experienced an explosion of infections

Arguments against imposing ‘lockdown’:

• The outcomes of lockdown were mostly mixed: More than 100 countries practised lockdowns at one time or another, and less than a dozen succeeded.
• 3-T policy (Testing, Tracing and Treatment) is more effective: No countries have practised lockdown earlier.
  • Contemporary evidence: Countries with 3-T policy (with or without lockdown) were largely successful in containing the COVID-19
  • Historical evidence: The United States used a similar strategy for tackling the 1957-58 flu.

Arguments favouring the effectiveness of ‘lockdown’:

• Rise in spread post lockdown: as compared to during the lockdown.
• Issues with the timing of lift of lockdown: While the virus did not re-emerge in countries like New Zealand and Taiwan (perfect timing), it has re-emerged in most of Europe and the United States.

Reasons for low deaths in poorer nations -

• Sub-Saharan Africa: affected less adversely than the richer, more advanced economies due to the development of herd immunity as a result of longer exposure to diseases and bad sanitation.
• East Asia: this region has used its greater experience with flu to deal with COVID-19.

India’s COVID-19 performance:

• Reduced the number of infections (cases per million): By the end September 2020, the Indian average was 4,712, identical to the world average (4,486) and the average of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).
• Lower death cases (deaths per million): in India, it is only 113 per million versus 271 per million for the world and 274 for MENA.
• Achievement of Herd Immunity: Jammu and Kashmir, Jharkhand and Goa have seen flattening; others like Karnataka, Maharashtra, are catching up.