Interpreting the India-­China Conversations

Context: There is a divergence in views on both sides; India needs a plan to check Beijing’s strategic objectives and ambitions. 

Recent talks between India and China:

• The Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral summit: where the defence ministers and foreign ministers of the two countries tried to sort out the matters.

 Issues with Indo-China relations

• Illusionary Consensus: The Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral summit where the defence ministers and foreign ministers of the two countries failed to bring out tangible outcomes:

• The ‘Five Point Consensus’ limited itself to urging the two sides to take guidance from “the consensus of their leaders on developing India-China relations.

• The remaining points were con?ned to urging both sides to abide by all existing agreements and protocols on China-India boundary a?airs and maintain peace and tranquillity; 

• Reiterated the importance of the Special Representative Mechanism to maintain communications;

• Calling for the continuance of meetings of the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India­ China Border A?airs (WMCC).
• Neither the Joint Statement, (nor the respective notes issued subsequently) specifically or obliquely mentioned a return to “the status quo” or to positions prior to the stando?. 
• What emerged from the talks, however, fell well short of expectations.

• Divergence in views: 

• China claimed that the Indian side “does not consider relations to be dependent on the settlement of the boundary question”, which is different from the actual Indian view.
• This is the business as usual from the Chinese side since ignoring the huge trust deficit that existed between the two countries has long been demonstrated by China.

• Contrasting strategic thought: Kautilya vs SunTzu - While restraint and moderation, as well as a balanced attitude to the use of force, are recurring themes in both texts, there are clear divergences when it comes to methodologies to be employed.

• For Sun Tzu, strategic positioning is critical to obtain a strategic advantage. All warfare, according to Sun Tzu, is based on deception and deceiving the opponent.

• While Kautilya emphasizes the significance of both power and morality, Sun Tzu seeks to subdue the enemy without fighting and resorting to attacking the enemy’s strategy as the best option. 

• Challenges to managing China’s rise: it is challenging to balance the twin objectives of “managing a more powerful neighbour while ensuring India’s rise”. This is because:

• China’s convoluted motives: Developing countries like India cannot keep themselves away from the convoluted Chinese notion of the “Community with a shared future for Mankind”.

• China’s intent today is to achieve great power status while ensuring acknowledgement of its status by other countries.

• Downsides of confrontational politics: Confrontational Politics aggravates the situation and creates a psychological impact on China’s thinking, pushing itself to secure its self-interest.

Way Forward for India

• Reach out to neighbours: and even countries beyond, warning them about falling into the trap of Chinese global ambitions.

• Check Chinese exploitation of Vaccine Diplomacy: China’s plans to provide access to China’s coronavirus vaccine to several countries of Asia and Africa.

• Prepare militarily: It might well be the case that the current regime in China may be manufacturing crises to play to a domestic audience, in part due to economic compulsions, but India must be on its guard.