India’s South Asian Opportunity

Context: Peace with Pakistan is not just a bilateral matter but is essential for India to transform South Asia

Background: While the recent statements by Pakistan rigidly lock the dialogue only on the Kashmir dispute. Rather it is best to focus on resolving issues that blight the entire subcontinent — poverty, malnutrition and unconscionable neglect of the young.

Prospects of India-Pakistan ties

• Economic integration: Reports such as the World Bank publication titled ‘A Glass Half Full’ conclude the explosive value to be derived from South Asian economic integration.
• Meaningful traction to SAARC: Which remains a victim of India-Pakistan posturing.
• Positive spillovers: Opens up opportunities to join Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) or advantageously link up with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Way forward:

• India should leverage regional size imbalance to take the lead:
  • Shares of India in total land area, population, and real GDP of South Asia in 2016 are 62%, 75%, and 83%, respectively.
  • The two other big countries in South Asia are Pakistan and Bangladesh, with shares in regional GDP of only 7.6% and 5.6%, respectively.
  • Collectively with a population of slightly over 1.9 billion, South Asia has a GDP (PPP) of $12 trillion.
• Treating Pakistan’s issue not bilaterally but as essential to transform South Asia for the better.