Get Farmer Numbers Right

Context: Agriculture policy should target India’s actual farming population, and the government welfare schemes should be aimed at poverty alleviation and uplifting those at the bottom of the pyramid.

Various parameters to calculate farming population in India:

• Total operational holdings: The Agriculture Ministry’s last Input Survey for 2016-17 pegged the total operational holdings at 146.19 million.
  • It also shows that out of the total 157.21 million hectares (mh) of farmland with 146.19 million holdings, only 140 mh was cultivated.
• Total agricultural households: The NABARD All India Rural Financial Inclusion Survey of the same year estimated the country’s “agricultural households” at 100.7 million.
  • It cover any household whose value of produce from farming activities is more than Rs 5,000 during a year, which is too little to qualify as living income.
• Beneficiaries: The Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM- Kisan) has around 111.5 million enrolled beneficiaries, with an average of 102 million-plus getting payments during 2020-21.

Identifying a “real” farmer: He/she is someone who would derive a significant part of his/her income from agriculture. It is assumed that it requires growing at least two crops in a year. 

• Out of the total 140mh cultivated (as per the Input Survey 2016-17), a mere 48 mh was cropped two times or more, which includes 40.76 mh of irrigated and 9.72 mh of un-irrigated land.
• Taking the average holding size of 1.08 hectares for 2016- 17, the number of “serious full-time farmers” cultivating a minimum of two crops a year would be 50 million. This is also consistent with other data from the Input Survey, pertaining to the following:
  • Cultivators planting certified/high yielding seeds (59.01 million).
  • Using own or hired tractors (72.29 million) and electric/diesel engine pump sets (45.96 million).
  • Availing institutional credit (57.08 million).

Reasons behind the current agricultural crisis: Impacting the full-time farmers.

• Absence of price parity: While post-Green Revolution in the 1970s, while minimum support price (MSP) of wheat was Rs 76 per quintal and 10 grams of 24-carat gold cost about Rs 185, today, it is at Rs 1,975/quintal and gold prices are Rs 45,000/10g.
  • Alternatively, fifty years ago, one kg of wheat could buy one litre of diesel at MSP. Today, that ratio is upwards of 4:1.
  • While the use of a high-yielding variety of seeds offset this parity, post-1990s, yields have further gone up to 5.1-5.2 tonnes/hectare in wheat and 6.4-6.5 tonnes for paddy.
  • This is also burdened by a fall in the production costs through the use of technology, irrigation techniques like drip irrigation, cross-breeding and favourable prices globally.
• Inefficiency of beneficiary based schemes: An annual transfer of Rs 6,000 under PM- Kisan may not be small for the part-time farmer who earns more from non-agricultural activities.

Way forward:

• Address the problem of price parity: Once there is clarity on the number of farmers for whom crop prices actually matter, decide on minimum “income” or “price” support to bring price parity.
  • Subsistence or part-time agriculturalists, on the other hand, would benefit more from welfare schemes and other interventions to boost non-farm employment.
• Focus on “serious full-time farmers”: Bring effective crop, livestock or poultry, agriculture policies emphasizing more on full-time farmers, who are dependent on agriculture for their livelihood.