Five years after Paris

Context: Not all countries are in a position to commit to substantive action on climate change. They should make pledges that are credible and fair.

Present climate issues:

• Rising levels of Green House Gases (GHGs): Global lockdowns have resulted in the fall of GHG emission by just 4.2%-7.5%.
• Side-effects: Like the unprecedented levels of wildfires, storms and cyclones.

Achievement towards Paris Agreement:

• All states have submitted their national contributions: 151 states have indicated about submitting stronger targets.
• Many states announced “net zero” targets: All G-7 states (except the US) and 11 G20 members have mid-century (2050 or 2060) net-zero targets (carbon dioxide or other GHGs).
  • These include Argentina, Mexico, the UK, Japan, Canada, Germany, France, the Republic of Korea, Italy, China, and the EU.

Issues with the Paris Agreement Implementation:

• Insufficiency of national contributions: National contributions of states may be insufficient; only 13 nations covering 2.4 % of global emissions, have submitted such targets.
• Mismatch between short-term actions and long-term commitments:
  • There is a significant “overshoot” in terms of GHGs in the short and medium-term.
  • Reliance on negative emissions (such as carbon dioxide removal) technologies to get there in the long-term.
• Limited accountability :
  • States are not obliged to achieve their self-selected targets and are only asked to provide justifications for the fairness and ambition of their targets.
  • Transparency framework does not contain a robust review function.
  • Compliance committee is facilitative and limited to ensuring compliance with a shortlist of binding procedural obligations.
• The issue of equity and fairness are side-stepped: Issues of fairness and justice, both between and within generations, are “unavoidable”.

Way forward:

• Credibility Check: It is crucial for updated national contributions to reflect targets and actions in 2030 that will take respective states to their 2050 or 2060 net zero target.
  • Global carbon dioxide emissions should fall by 45 % as recommended by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to achieve 1.5 degrees Celsius limit from the 2010 levels by 2030.
• Accountability check: Ensure accountability for the long-term net-zero goals and short-term national contributions.
• Fairness check: Ensure that the of goals and commitments across states are fair and equitable.
  • For E.g. In the landmark Urgenda case (2019), the Dutch Supreme court considered “fair shares” when identifying benchmarks that could be judged in the context of a collective action problem.

Conclusion: All states, including India, should pledge actions that are credible, accountable and fair.