Evaluating India’s options in Afghanistan

Context: With the West done with Afghanistan, India needs to adopt a layered approach in finding a political solution.

India – Afghanistan ties: An overview 

• Till 1996: India has historically enjoyed good ties with Afghanistan, which go back to the 1950 Treaty of Friendship.
• 1996-2001: Indian interests and influence suffered when the Taliban, backed by Pakistan, captured Kabul in 1996.
• Since 2001: India was back in action as soon as the Taliban were ousted from power after the U.S. invasion in 2001.
  • India has made huge investments and commitments ever since, which run into over $3 billion and cultivated strong economic and defence ties with the Afghan government.
• 2021: Uncertainty with U.S. pullback having effectively changed the balance of power in Afghanistan and Taliban making rapid territorial gains.

Analysing India’s option of talking with Taliban

• Positive aspects:
  • An inevitable step: India has already established contacts with Taliban in Doha.
  • This would allow India to seek security guarantees from insurgents in return for continued development assistance or other pledges.
• Associated challenges and issues
  • Deep ties between Pakistan’s security establishment and Haqqani Network, a major faction within Taliban that’s driving successful campaigns on the battlefield.
  • Government still commands support: The Afghan military has some 200,000 battle­hardened soldiers, including the highly trained special force.
  • Regional convergence against Taliban: None of these countries (China, Russia and Iran) would like to see Taliban taking over Kabul militarily because-
    • A jihadist-oriented Taliban regime would not serve China’s internal interests.
    • Russia fears that instability would spill over into former Soviet Republics.
    • For Shia theocratic Iran, a Sunni Deobandi Taliban will continue to remain an ideological, sectarian and strategic challenge.

Way Forward:

• Take a layered approach:
  • Immediate goal should be the safe­ ty and security of its personnel and investments.
  • The long-term goal should be finding a political solution to the crisis.
  • And if a political solution is not achieved, it should seek non­conventional methods, like what it did in the 1990s, to offer support to its allies within Afghanistan and retain some influence.
• Finding a regional solution: 
  • Russia has cultivated links with the Taliban in recent years. India would need Russia’s support in any form of direct engagement with the Taliban.
  • When it comes to Afghanistan, Iran is an irreplaceable country. It shares a long border with Afghanistan and has built contacts through several stakeholders in the country.
  • India should talk with China, with the objective of finding a political settlement and lasting stability in Afghanistan.
• Maintaining a right balance between continental realities and the U.S.’s pivot to maritime Asia:
  • The U.S., and the West in general, are done with Afghanistan. India, as one of the countries that would be impacted by the consequences of American withdrawal.